Epidemiological studies have shown contradictory results regarding the time trend of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in people with diabetes. This study aims to analyze the incidence of ESRD, defined as chronic renal replacement therapy (RRT), to investigate time trends among people with and without diabetes in Germany and to examine whether these patterns differ by age and sex.


The data were sourced from nationwide data pooled from two German branches of statutory health insurances covering ∼25 million inhabitants. We estimated age- and sex-standardized incidence rates (IRs) for chronic RRT among people with and without diabetes in 2010–2016 and the corresponding relative risks. Time trends were analyzed using Poisson regression.


We identified 73,638 people with a first chronic RRT (male 60.0%, diabetes 60.6%, mean age 71.3 years). The IR of chronic RRT among people with diabetes (114.1 per 100,000 person-years [95% CI 110.0–117.2]) was almost six times higher than among people without diabetes (19.6 [19.4–19.8]). A consistent decline in IR was observed among people with diabetes (3% annual reduction, P < 0.0001) for both sexes and all age classes. In contrast, no consistent change of IR was identified in people without diabetes. Only among women aged <40 years (P = 0.0003) and people aged ≥80 years (P < 0.0001) did this IR decrease significantly.


Incidence of chronic RRT remained significantly higher among people with diabetes. The IR decreased significantly in people with diabetes independent of age and sex. Time trends were inconsistent in people without diabetes.

This article contains supplementary material online at https://doi.org/10.2337/figshare.14055110.

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H.C. and M.N. are joint first authors and contributed equally.

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