Incidence and Risk Factors of Diagnosed Young-Adult-Onset Type 2 Diabetes in the U.S.: The National Health Interview Survey 2016–2022

To estimate the incidence and identify risk factors for diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) among young U.S. adults.

We analyzed 142,884 adults aged 18–79 years with self-reported diabetes type from the cross-sectional National Health Interview Survey in 2016–2022, representing the noninstitutionalized U.S. civilian population. Incidence of diagnosed T2D was calculated for three age groups: young-adult onset (18–44 years), middle-age onset (45–64 years), and older-adult onset (65–79 years); the latter two groups were included to highlight the distinct risk factor profile of young-adult-onset T2D. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify risk factors for young-adult-onset T2D.

The estimated incidence of diagnosed young-adult-onset T2D was 3.0 per 1000 adults (95% CI 2.6–3.5). Minority groups, socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals, and people with cardiometabolic diseases or psychological conditions had a higher incidence of diagnosed young-adult-onset T2D compared with their counterparts. Lipid-lowering medication use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 13.15, 95% CI 8.85–19.55), antihypertensive medication use (aOR 11.89, 95% CI 7.97–17.73), and obesity (BMI ≥30 vs. <25 kg/m², aOR 10.89, 95% CI 6.69–17.7) were the strongest risk factors for young-adult-onset T2D; these risk factors, along with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and coronary heart disease, were more strongly associated with young-adult-onset T2D compared with later-onset T2D, with up to 4.5 times higher aORs.

This study quantified the incidence of diagnosed young-adult-onset T2D in U.S. adults and identified its distinct risk factor profile. Targeted prevention strategies for young-adult-onset T2D are needed for minority and socioeconomically disadvantaged people and those with cardiometabolic diseases.