OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for incident coronary heart disease (CHD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 175 Japanese-American men without CHD were followed for up to 10 years. Baseline variables were blood pressure, weight, BMI, fat areas by computed tomography, skinfold thicknesses, abdominal circumference, plasma insulin, C-peptide, cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, HDL2 cholesterol, and HDL3 cholesterol, triglycerides, apoproteins A1 and B, and diagnosis of diabetes and hypertension. CHD was diagnosed by electrocardiogram and clinical events. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratio. RESULTS: There were 50 incident cases of CHD. Using univariate logistic regression analysis, significant risk factors were intra-abdominal fat (P = 0.0090), fasting glucose (P = 0.0002), 2-h glucose (P = 0.0008), fasting HDL cholesterol (P = 0.0086), fasting HDL2 cholesterol (P = 0.030), fasting HDL3 cholesterol (P = 0.018), fasting triglycerides (P = 0.013), systolic (P = 0.0007) and diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.0002), and presence of diabetes (P = 0.0023). Multiple logistic regression models adjusted for BMI and age showed that intra-abdominal fat accounted for the effects of HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. In a multiple logistic regression model that included intra-abdominal fat, all systolic blood pressure and fasting glucose were significant. Substituting diastolic blood pressure for systolic blood pressure and 2-h glucose or diabetes status for fasting glucose produced similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Visceral adiposity, blood pressure, and plasma glucose are important independent risk factors for incident CHD in this population of diabetic and nondiabetic Japanese-American men.

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