OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the degree of glomerular structural lesions in young patients with type 1 diabetes and microalbuminuria was associated with urinary albumin excretion rate (AER) 6 years later and whether the AER level was influenced by blood glucose control, blood pressure, or glomerular filtration rate (GFR). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: There were 17 young adults with type 1 diabetes and microalbuminuria, 8 men and 9 women with mean age 20 years (95% CI: 18-22) and duration of diabetes of 11 years (10-13), who participated in a 6-year prospective study. Kidney biopsies (measurements of basement membrane thickness [BMT] and mesangial and matrix volume fractions) and GFR were performed at baseline. AER and HbA1c were measured at least three times a year and blood pressure once a year. RESULTS: In a multivariate analysis, baseline BMT and mean 6-year HbA1c contributed significantly to AER at the end of the study (R2 = 0.69, P < 0.01). When mesangial volume fraction replaced BMT as the independent variable, this parameter and AER at baseline predicted the AER at 6 years (R2 = 0.55, P < 0.55). Mesangial volume fraction and BMT (in separate analysis) contributed significantly to change in AER during the study. During the study, neither AER (30 micrograms/min [19-40] to 16 micrograms/min [7-90]) nor blood pressure (96 mmHg [92-102] to 95 mmHg [91-98]) changed significantly in the group. However, HbA1c was reduced from 10.3 (9.6-11.0) to 8.4% (7.8-9.1) (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In young patients with microalbuminuria, the long-term urinary AER was predicted by the degree of glomerular structural changes and associated with blood glucose control, but not with blood pressure or GFR.

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