Introduction: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is one of the most enabling microvascular complications. Comparison of different treatment is problematic, as there are no clinical trials comparing different managements and patients’ characteristics vary between the studies.

Aim: to create probabilistic model, which allows predict DKD course according to the different treatment.

Methods: A systematic literature review was performed, which allowed to estimate transition probabilities between the states of DKD - normoalbuminuria (NA), microalbuminuria (MA), diabetic nephropathy (NP), end stage renal disease. Due to the high complexity of dependence between transition rates and probabilities, Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme was applied.

Results: Of 1,812 articles identified after initial search, 95 publications had relevant data to estimate transition probabilities between DKD states. The lowest transition probabilities from MA to NP and the highest probability of remission from MA to NA was found in surgery group, followed by ACEI and ARB medications group (Fig.1).

Conclusions: according to the model data bariatric surgery presents the highest probability of regression to NA state and the lowest probability of progression to NP state among the overweight and obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and MA.


D. Velickiene: None. A. Maleckas: None. T. Iesmantas: None. R. Alzbutas: None.

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