Visual Abstract
Without public health interventions, the number of people with diabetes in future years is projected to grow significantly. This study aims to project the future number of US youth aged <20 years with type 1 (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Based on an illness-death model and the analytical relationship between incidence and prevalence, we projected the age- and sex-specific prevalence of T1DM and T2DM in the US males and females aged <20 years between 2017 and 2060. Input data for 2017 age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence rates were derived from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study. Age-specific incidence rates between 2017 and 2060 were assumed to remain constant in the baseline scenario and were assumed to increase based on observed incidence trends in the SEARCH data between 2002 and 2015 in the trend scenario. The projected age- and sex-specific prevalence was applied to the Main Series of US Census Bureau Population Projections to estimate the number of people <20 years with diabetes. The results (Table 1) suggest that the number of people with T1DM aged <20 years will increase by 11% in the baseline scenario and almost double in the trend scenario. The number of people with T2DM is projected to increase by 27% in the baseline scenario and more than quadruple in the trend scenario. These results highlight the importance of interventions focused on prevention to attenuate the future rise of T1DM and T2DM in US youth.
T. Tönnies: None. R. Dagostino: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Biogen, Daiichi Sankyo. A. Hoyer: None. G. Imperatore: None. S. Saydah: None. S. Isom: None. D. Dabelea: None. J. Divers: None. E. J. Mayer-davis: None. C. Pihoker: None. L. M. Dolan: None. R. Brinks: None.
