Can Future Type I Diabetes Be Predicted? A Study in Families of Affected Children

This article examines the risk of type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes in siblings of affected children, in relation to HLA genotypes. The 288 available siblings of 160 diabetic probands were grouped according to the number of HLA haplotypes in common with their probands. HLA-identical siblings (both haplotypes in common) have an approximately 100 times greater risk of developing the disease than that in the general population, and this risk is significantly higher than that in haplo-identical siblings (one haplotype in common) P = 0.008). Thus, in Northern European populations, some 30% of HLA-identical siblings are expected to be diabetic by the age of 30 yr. The risk in nonidentical siblings (neither haplotype in common) is not significantly increased. These findings carry implications for genetic counseling and research.