Aims: We propose a novel nomogram, which graphically expresses the numerical relationship between type 2 diabetes (T2D) and disease-related risk factors.

Methods: Data of 8999 patients from the 2013-2014 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to assess risk factors for T2D and a nomogram was constructed based on screened risk factors. A receiver operating curve (ROC) and calibration plot were created to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram.

Results: The risk factor with the greatest impact on the incidence of T2D was age over 60 years (OR=9.458), followed by presence of dyslipidemia and cardiovascular disease (OR=8.981), family history of T2D (OR=2.916), abdominal obesity (OR=1.759), hypertension (OR=1.747), male gender (OR=1.549), current-smoking status (OR=1.523), lower education level (OR=1.417), and lower income (OR=1.300). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) showed statistically significant determination (AUC=0.826). The equation of the calibration plot was drawn along the ideal line; coefficient of determination was 0.864.

Conclusion: Our proposed nomogram could accurately predict the incidence risk of T2D from nationwide data. The novel nomogram can be a useful tool for screening patients with T2D incidence in a Korean population.


S. Chung: None. J. Moon: None. J. Yoon: None. K. Won: None.

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