Aim: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a known predictor of diabetes mellitus (DM), but whether longitudinal changes in MetS status modify the risk for DM remains unclear. We investigated whether temporal changes in MetS status over two years modify the 10-year risk of incident DM.

Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted in 7,317 adults aged 40-70 years without DM at baseline. Subjects were categorized into four groups based on repeated longitudinal assessment of MetS status over two years: non-MetS, resolved MetS, incident MetS, and persistent MetS. The hazard ratio (HR) of new-onset DM during 10 years was calculated in each group using Cox models.

Results: During the 10-year follow-up, 1,099 (15.0%) developed DM. Compared to the non-MetS group, the fully adjusted hazard ratios for new-onset DM were 1.27 (1.01-1.61) in the resolved MetS group, 1.78 (1.43-2.22) in the incident MetS group, and 1.85 (1.52-2.26) in the persistent MetS group (P for trend <0.001). The risk of DM in subjects with resolved MetS was attenuated compared to those with persistent MetS over two years (P<0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio for 10-year developing DM gradually increased as the number of MetS components increased two years later (Figure 1).

Conclusion: We found that discrete longitudinal changes pattern in MetS status over two years associated with 10-year risk of DM. These findings suggest that monitoring change of MetS status and controlling it may be important for risk prediction of DM.


J. Huh: None. S. Lee: None.

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