Objective: We aimed to estimate the global prevalence of type 2 diabetes over the next ten years, taking into account trends in obesity. Our analysis includes estimates for 45 countries representing almost 90% of the world population. We defined a prevalent case as anyone living with type 2 diabetes, irrespective of whether it has been formally diagnosed or not and excluded type 1 diabetes cases.

Methods: We performed a global systematic search of published studies and other data sources that reported the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, as well as any factors that may change its risk or prognosis over time or between countries. Our analysis is based on critically-appraised literature and database evidence that reports the total prevalence of type 2 diabetes. From the results of this search, we appraised and selected country-specific estimates to project up to national totals. These estimates were adjusted to account for historical or future trends in risk, as well as relevant differences between countries when extrapolations were made. Our model includes country-specific obesity prevalence to incorporate the impact of obesity on diabetes trends.

Results: We estimate that in 2018 there are more than 500 million prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes worldwide and the prevalence is comparable between high- and low-income countries. The prevalence will increase in all countries covered over the projection period, but the greatest growth will be experienced in lower-income countries.


A. Bradshaw Kaiser: None. N. Zhang: None.

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