Novel biomarkers of T2D and preventative treatment response could predict outcomes in high-risk individuals. We used Cox models to assess the association of 334 profiled metabolites in 2,019 baseline plasma samples with incident T2D after 3.2 years in a DPP substudy. We further assessed if associations out of the 334 metabolites differed by treatment (lifestyle (ILS), metformin (MET), and placebo (PLA)) and if, after stratification into concentration quartiles, the metabolite levels modified treatment effect in pair-wise treatment comparisons. We found 69 metabolites associated with incident T2D in the entire cohort (FDR-q<0.05) including the novel association of cytosine, which had the lowest risk (HR of 0.77 per 1 SD, 95% CI 0.67-0.89, FDR-q 0.008). The associations of 35 metabolites differed across the three treatments (p for homogeneity <0.05) and the quartiles of several of these metabolites modified treatment effects in pair-wise comparisons (Table 1). For example, individuals in higher quartiles of specific phospholipids had decreased T2D risk with ILS compared to PLA and MET, but not with MET when compared to PLA.

In conclusion, we identified baseline metabolites associated with T2D risk prediction and efficacy of prevention interventions. This motivates further studies to validate interactions between biomarkers and diabetes prevention strategies.


Z. Chen: None. J. Liu: None. J. Morningstar: None. B.M. Heckman-Stoddard: None. C. Lee: None. S. Dagogo-Jack: Board Member; Self; Jana Care Inc. Consultant; Self; Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Sanofi-Aventis. Research Support; Self; AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk Inc. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Dance Biopharm Holdings Inc. J.F. Ferguson: None. R.F. Hamman: None. W.C. Knowler: None. K.J. Mather: Advisory Panel; Self; Roche Diabetes Care. Research Support; Self; Abbott, Merck & Co., Inc., Novo Nordisk A/S, Sanofi. L. Perreault: Advisory Panel; Self; Novo Nordisk A/S, Sanofi. Speaker's Bureau; Self; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Novo Nordisk A/S. J.C. Florez: None. T. Wang: None. C.B. Clish: None. M. Temprosa: Research Support; Self; National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. Other Relationship; Self; Merck KGaA. R.E. Gerszten: None. DPP Research Group: None.

Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. More information is available at