Background: Lifetime risk (LR) of developing diabetes and the years of life lost (YLLs) due to the disease are intuitive ways to characterize the diabetes burden.
Methods: We applied the illness-death model. For LR, we inputted age- and sex-specific diabetes incidence rates and the nondiabetic population mortality rate. For YLLs, which compares the life expectancy of people with and without diabetes, we additionally input diabetes mortality rates. We estimated incidence and prevalence rates based on the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system. We calculated mortality rates combining diabetes prevalence, all-cause mortality obtained from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study.
Results: The risk of developing diabetes from age 35 to the age shown in the Table (column “Lifetime Risk”) was higher in women; YLLs due to developing diabetes at the age indicated were higher in men. In 2016, for women aged 35 without diabetes, the LR up to age 80 was 41.3%; for men, 28.0%. Considering a life expectancy of 80 years for those without diabetes, a man diagnosed with diabetes at age 40 would lose 6.1 years of life; a woman, 3.1 years.
P. Bracco: None. M.I. Schmidt: Research Support; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Research Support; Spouse/Partner; Eli Lilly and Company. P.A. Lotufo: None. S. Barreto: None. B.B. Duncan: Research Support; Self; Eli Lilly and Company. Research Support; Spouse/Partner; Eli Lilly and Company.
Brazilian Ministry of Health
