Diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence increases worldwide. Elevated BMI, waist circumference (WC), blood pressure (BP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and triglycerides (TGs), as well as low HDL cholesterol level are known risk factors of DM incidence. We analyzed the association of these parameters, with the addition of abdominal aorta diameter (AAD) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using CKD-EPI equation, with DM incidence among 200 women aged 65-74, nondiabetic at baseline assessment in 2012. After 6.5 years of follow-up 36 new DM cases occurred. Women with incident DM had significantly higher baseline FPG, 108.6±18.0 vs. 97.2±10,9 mg/dL, P<0.001 and TGs, 142.2±54,6 vs. 115,6±49,7 mg/dL, P=0.002, while they had lower AAD, 18.1±4,7 vs. 18.4±2,5 mm, P=0.019; HDL cholesterol 58.7±12.7 vs. 68.9±17.3 mg/dL, P<0.001 and eGFR, 77.4±14.5 vs. 83.1±17.2 mL/min/1.73 m2, P=0.045. WC, BP and BMI were not significantly different between groups. Relative risk (RR) of DM incidence was significantly higher for AAD <18 mm, RR (95% CI) 2.66 (1.41-5.01), P=0.003; FPG ≥100 mg/dL, RR 2.89 (1.51-5.55), P<0.001; TGs ≥150 mg/dL, RR 2.26 (1.26-4.03), P=0.013 and eGFR <75,0 ml/min/1,73 m2, RR 2.11 (1.18-3.77), P=0.020. Other variables did not attain statistical significance limit. In the multiple logistic regression analysis including all variables, only AAD <18 mm, FPG ≥100 mg/dL, and eGFR <75,0 ml/min/1,73 m2 were independently associated with DM risk (P=0.005, P=0.010 and P=0.018 respectively). In the backward stepwise regression analysis DM incidence could be predicted from a linear combination of the independent variables: AAD <18 mm (P=0.005), FPG ≥100 mg/dL (P=0.009), eGFR <75,0 ml/min/1,73 m2 (P=0.017) and TGs ≥150 mg/dL (P=0.034). Thus, AAD <18 mm seem to be a novel, independent marker of DM risk in elderly women, and AAD assessment during routine abdomen ultrasound may be helpful, together with other DM risk factors, in identifying elderly females at very high risk of DM incidence.


M. D?browski: Other Relationship; Self; Ascensia Diabetes Care, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, Mundipharma, Novo Nordisk Inc., Sanofi-Aventis, Servier, WöRWAG Pharma. T. Derezinski: None. A. Uruska: None. D. Zozulinska-Ziolkiewicz: Advisory Panel; Self; Roche Diabetes Care. Other Relationship; Self; Ascensia Diabetes Care, AstraZeneca, Berlin-Chemie AG, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk Inc., Sanofi-Aventis, Servier, WöRWAG Pharma.

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