The lifetable approach to estimate the life-expectancy of T2DM patients used a weak assumption on the continuum risk profiles by age group. To improve transparency and accuracy of lifetable estimation, this study aimed to use a microsimulation modeling approach to produce the life-expectancy of T2DM patients. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2011-2012) and linked the National Death Index to calibrate the mortality equation of the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes model, a person-level discrete-time microsimulation model, which has been extensively validated against 18 international trials before. Life expectancy was estimated under two treatment targets: population average: A1c 7.5%, SBP 130 mmHg, LDL 100 mg/dl, and BMI 30 kg/m2; recommended level: A1c 6.5%, SBP 120 mmHg, LDL 90 mg/dl, and BMI 25 kg/m2. Table 1 presents the life-expectancies of patients with type 2 diabetes by subgroups. Females in general lives 4 years longer than males, while racial-ethnic difference in life-expectancy was not significant among T2DM patients, conditional on the trajectories of risk factors across groups. The recommended goal of biomarkers prolongs life expectancy by 1.3-1.8 years, compared with the current population average. The new approach may generate more accurate statistics for national diabetes surveillance.

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Disclosure

H. Kianmehr: None. S. Yang: None. V. Fonseca: Consultant; Self; Abbott, Asahi Kasei Corporation, AstraZeneca, Bayer Inc., Novo Nordisk Inc., Sanofi. Research Support; Self; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Amgen, Bravo4health. L. Shi: None. J.D. Brown: None. Y. Guo: None. H. Shao: None.

© 2020 by the American Diabetes Association
2020
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