Longitudinal data are critical to inform prediction of transition to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from prediabetes. This study aimed to ascertain T2DM incidence and risk factors, including chronic kidney disease (CKD), in patients with prediabetes. The CURE-CKD registry of electronic health record data includes >2.6 million patients with and at-risk for CKD (T2DM, hypertension, prediabetes).
Adults with prediabetes were identified by established criteria for % A1C, random and fasting glycemia, and administrative codes. T2DM was defined by corresponding established criteria. CKD was defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73m2, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio >30 mg/g based upon 2 or more measurements >90 days apart, and administrative codes. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to predict T2DM.
From 2006 to 2017, there were 678,493 patients with prediabetes and baseline A1C 5.9±0.3% (mean±SD). Incident T2DM occurred in 185,770 (27%) at a mean of 3.6 years. At baseline, 134,240 (20%) had CKD. Adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and hypertension, hazard ratios for T2DM were greater in patients with CKD (1.44, 95%CI [1.42, 1.47]) and with increases in 1% A1C (4.59 95%CI [4.47, 4.72]).
CKD was common in prediabetes and, along with higher A1C, demonstrated the greatest hazards for incident T2DM. Presence of CKD identifies patients with prediabetes who are high-risk for transition to T2DM.
K.A. Hennessey: None. R.Z. Alicic: None. K.B. Daratha: None. C. Jones: None. J.J. Neumiller: None. O. Duru: None. S. Nicholas: Speaker’s Bureau; Self; Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Other Relationship; Self; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, George Institute for Global Health, Goldfinch Bio, Inc., National Institutes of Health. S.M. McPherson: None. K.C. Norris: None. K.R. Tuttle: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Bayer Inc., Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Goldfinch Bio, Novo Nordisk Inc.