Visual Abstract

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a leading cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Future trajectories of CKD prevalence, progression, and outcomes in patients with T2D are key considerations for policy planning and healthcare implementation. Using country-specific patient-level microsimulation, Inside CKD aims to model the global clinical and economic burden of CKD for 2020-2025.

Methods: We used the Inside CKD microsimulation to model the clinical burden of CKD in patients with T2D. We constructed virtual populations using country-specific data, including demographics and prevalence of concomitant CKD (by stage) and T2D, from multiple published sources.

Results: Preliminary data from three countries demonstrate that in 2020-2025 the number of patients with T2D and CKD is expected to rise by 6.5% in the UK, 13.2% in the US, and 16.6% in Canada (Figure). The largest increase is expected in the 35-64-years age group in the UK (21.8%) and in the ≥ 65-years age group in the US and Canada (16.7% and 21.2%, respectively).

Conclusion: This microsimulation models a linear increase in the number of patients with both T2D and CKD over 5 years, including consistent increases in the number of patients with T2D and CKD stages 3b-5. Reliable epidemiologic models can help inform future country-specific healthcare policy and the design of interventions focused on early diagnosis and slowing CKD progression.

graphic
View largeDownload slide
Disclosure

J. Sanchez: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca, Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca. J. Halimi: None. E. Kanda: Speaker’s Bureau; Self; AstraZeneca K. K. G. Li: None. F. Mennini: None. J. Navarro-gonzalez: None. S. T. Nolan: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca, Employee; Spouse/Partner; Biomarin, Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca, Stock/Shareholder; Spouse/Partner; Biomarin. A. Power: Advisory Panel; Self; AstraZeneca, Bayer U. S., Napp Pharmaceuticals, Vifor Pharma Management Ltd., Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Speaker’s Bureau; Self; Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., AstraZeneca, Napp Pharmaceuticals, Vifor Pharma Management Ltd. L. Retat: Employee; Self; HealthLumen. N. Tangri: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada) Ltd., ClinPredict Inc, Eli Lilly and Company, Mesentech, Otsuka America Pharmaceutical, Inc., PulseData, Roche Pharma, Tricida, Inc., Research Support; Self; Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. L. Webber: Employee; Self; HealthLumen. A. Sultan: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca, Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca. J. Wish: Advisory Panel; Self; Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., AstraZeneca, Rockwell Medical, Vifor Pharma Management Ltd., Speaker’s Bureau; Self; Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., AstraZeneca. M. Xu: Employee; Self; HealthLumen. J. Ärnlöv: Advisory Panel; Self; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Other Relationship; Self; Novartis AG. M. C. Batista: None. C. Cabrera: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca, Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca. J. Card-gowers: Employee; Self; HealthLumen. S. Chadban: Advisory Panel; Self; Astellas Pharma Inc., AstraZeneca, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. G. M. Chertow: Advisory Panel; Self; Ardelyx, Baxter, Cricket Health, DURECT Corporation, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Other Relationship; Self; Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., AstraZeneca, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated. L. Denicola: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Mundipharma International, Novo Nordisk.

Funding

AstraZeneca

© 2021 by the American Diabetes Association
2021
Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. More information is available at http://www.diabetesjournals.org/content/license.