Background: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) and islet autoantibody (AAb) specificity and titers influence T1D risk; however, these factors collected at baseline in cross sectional studies have not been effectively incorporated in the current models for prediction of progression along pre-clinical stages of T1D. Our aim was to develop an updated model of T1D prediction for research and clinical practice.

Methods: AAb-positive relatives of individuals with T1D (n=1,233, 52% female, 88% European ancestry, age mean 15 yrs [SD 12.2]) from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention were followed for a median of 3.1 years (IQR 1.1 -7.1). T1D developed in 498/1,233 (40.4%). T1D GRS, AAb number, AAb combination, AAb titer, age and sex were evaluated on the combined T1D prediction model, estimating its performance using 3-fold cross-validation (10x repeated).

Results: Machine learning (survival random forest) and traditional methods (Cox models, extended Cox model) performed equivalently as measured by 5 yr horizon time-dependent AUC ROC (respectively 0.74, 0.74, 0.72), on calibration by integrated Brier score (respectively 0.15, 0.15, 0.16), and by calibration plots. AAb combinations with specific variables predicted T1D. In multivariate analysis, T1D GRS was a significant predictor of T1D in individuals positive for GADA, IAA or both. For any autoantibody combination including IA2A, the IA2A titer was predictive while the T1D GRS was not. Variable importance analyses showed that T1D was predicted by IA2A titer level, followed by T1D GRS and combinations of specific AAbs.

Conclusion: We modeled individual estimates of T1D risk with T1D GRS, AAb characteristics, age, and sex. T1D prediction improved by adding T1D GRS and AAb characteristics to other variables, and was similar using machine learning or traditional models. T1D GRS was a significant predictor only in the absence of IA2A. In the presence of IA2A, IA2A titer was the most influential factor.


L. A. Ferrat: None. M. J. Redondo: Advisory Panel; Self; Provention Bio, Inc. A. Steck: None. H. M. Parikh: None. L. You: None. S. Onengut-gumuscu: None. P. Gottlieb: Advisory Panel; Self; Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Tolerion, Inc., Viacyte, Inc., Other Relationship; Self; ImmunoMolecular Therapeutics, Inc., Research Support; Self; Caladrius Biosciences, Inc., Immune Tolerance Network, Mercia Pharma Inc., National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Precigen, Inc., Tolerion, Inc. S. S. Rich: None. J. Krischer: None. R. A. Oram: Consultant; Self; Janssen Research & Development, LLC.


National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (1R01DK121843-01); JDRF (3-SRA-2019-827-S-B)

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