Visual Abstract

Considering ethnicity and disease heterogeneity, an early predictable index for future diabetes remains a challenge. As such, mathematical model-derived insulin sensitivity (mSI) and beta-cell function (mBCF) indices were estimated from oral glucose tolerance tests using the model of Ha and Sherman (AJP Endo 2020). Data from a 14 year longitudinal study in a Korean Population (baseline, Age 51.6±8.8 yrs, Male (50%), BMI 24.5±3.1 kg/m2, Figure A) were analyzed to identify the best predictor among fasting glucose (FG), one hour glucose (1hG), two hour glucose (2hG), HbA1c, and mBCF adjusted for mSI. Both adjusted mBCF and 1hG were the best predictors (adjusted by age, sex and BMI, both P<0.0001 vs. other non-model indices, Figure B). The superior performance of 1hG to the other non-model indices tested likely results from its strong correlation with adjusted mBCF (R2=0.89, P<0.0001). We conclude that beta-cell dysfunction best predicts progression to diabetes in the Korean population.

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Disclosure

S. Ryang: None. Y. Kim: None. M. Yoo: None. H. Song: None. R. Rhee: None. J. Kim: None. H. Kang: None. A. Sherman: None. J. Kim: None. S. Kim: None. J. Ha: None. W. Yi: None. J. Kim: None. S. Bae: None. S. Jeong: None. M. Jang: None. M. Kim: None. Y. Kim: None. I. Kim: None.

© 2021 by the American Diabetes Association
2021
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