In 2021, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) expanded the recommended age range for prediabetes and diabetes screening among those with overweight/obesity to 35-70 years. Using 2017 to pre-pandemic March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, we applied these screening criteria to assess their performance in a nationally representative sample. We included 3243 non-pregnant adults aged ≥18 years without diagnosed diabetes. Screening eligibility was determined based on participants' age and measured body mass index (BMI) [≥23kg/m2 for non-Hispanic (NH) Asian adults and ≥25kg/m2 for other ethnic groups]. Dysglycemia was defined based on A1c ≥5.7% or fasting plasma glucose ≥100mg/dL. We compared participant characteristics by USPSTF eligibility. We also assessed performance [sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) , and negative predictive value (NPV) ] of the screening criteria for detecting dysglycemia overall and by ethnicity. During 2017-2020, 44.4% of US adults aged 35-70 years were eligible for screening, representing 95.9 million US adults. Relative to adults who were ineligible, those who were eligible had a higher burden of diabetes risk factors, as well as greater proportions of some racial ethnic groups, higher proportion of those with less than a high school education, and more likely to be living in poverty. The performance characteristics of the USPSTF screening criteria were: sensitivity 59.4% (95% CI: 56.4-62.4) ; specificity 68.6% (65.1-71.9) ; PPV 62.4% (59.2-65.6) ; and NPV 65.8% (61.9-69.5) . The sensitivity by ethnicity was as follows: NH White adults 59.1% (55.4-62.7) ; NH Black adults 63.6% (57.8-68.9) ; Hispanic adults 62.0% (55.0-68.5) ; and NH Asian adults 57.3% (46.6-67.3) . Screening based on the 2021 USPSTF criteria will detect approximately 60% of US adults with dysglycemia, which was similar across ethnic groups.


M.J.O'brien: None. K.M.Bullard: None. Y.Zhang: n/a. S.Bailey: Consultant; Lundbeck, Luto, Pfizer Inc., Sanofi, Research Support; Eli Lilly and Company, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Lundbeck, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc., Retirement Research Foundation for Aging. S.Khan: None. R.T.Ackermann: Consultant; UnitedHealth Group. M.K.Ali: Advisory Panel; Bayer AG, Research Support; Merck & Co., Inc. S.R.Benoit: None. G.Imperatore: None. C.S.Holliday: None.

Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. More information is available at