US rural, compared to non-rural, populations have diabetes health disparities. However, it is unknown if there are rural disparities in incident diabetes. We used CDC data on incidence of diagnosed diabetes in adults aged ≥20 years, available for 97.5% of US counties (n=3145/3226) . Trends in the annual age-adjusted incident diabetes rate per 1000 adults (AADR) were assessed by weighted least squares regression. Year was fitted nonlinearly with a spline function, and AADR fold-change was tested by a model-based contrast of 20vs. 2018. The average AADR of 8.7 (95% CI 8.6-8.7) ranged from 9.3 (in 2011) to 8.3 (in 2013) and 8.9 (in 2018) , and concealed subnational disparities based on rurality (Figure) . In 2018, compared with 2011, the AADR decreased for large central metro counties (most urban) with AADR fold-change of 0.92 (0.91-0.93) but increased for noncore counties (most rural) with AADR fold-change of 1. (1.01-1.08) (both P<.01) . The AADR declined in counties with intermediate rurality except for micropolitan counties (no change; P=.56) . When stratified by region, the largest rural disparity in AADR was observed in the South, with smaller disparities in other regions.

In summary, from 2011-2018, rural counties had the highest overall AADR. The overall disparity in trends based on county rurality and the disparity in incidence in the rural South and rural West highlight areas for diabetes primary prevention interventions.


K.R. Bailey: None. M.M. Mielke: Consultant; Biogen, LabCorp. A. Vella: Advisory Panel; Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Rezolute, Inc., vTv Therapeutics, Zealand Pharma A/S. Other Relationship; Novo Nordisk.


National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIH K23 MD016230)

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