The cost-effectiveness of SGLT2i can be modulated by patients’ characteristics, such as cardiovascular risks. We performed an individualized cost-effectiveness assessment of SGLT2i when added to metformin in people with inadequately controlled T2D to quantify the modulating effect of patients’ characteristics on the cost-effectiveness of SGLT2i. We identified survey participants with T2D receiving metformin monotherapy who had an A1c level above 7.0% from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013-2018) . We applied a simulation-based smoothing method to populate the survey sample to its represented national population. We used the BRAVO diabetes model to simulate the lifetime cost and QALYs associated with SGLT2i or sulfonylureas. Treatment escalations were governed by the A1c level at 7% and 8% consequentially. Both costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold was set at $100,000/QALYs. The study sample included 2.89 million individuals. Compared with sulfonylureas, the use of SGLT2i was associated with an average of $9,400 higher medical cost and 0.10 additional QALY, leading to an ICER of $94,000/QALY in the overall population. SGLT2i was cost-effective in people with a history of heart failure (ICER: $67,000/QALY) and myocardial infarction (ICER: $94,000/QALY) , and marginally cost-effective in stroke patients (ICER: $100,000/QALY) . Among individuals without CVD, SGLT2i was cost-effective only in subgroups with HbA1c > 7.5%, age > 60, and diabetes duration > 10 years. Overall, SGLT2i was only cost-effective in individuals with a baseline 10-year CVD risk over 16%, constituting 51.6% of the overall population. Our results align closely with the ADA guideline on the recommended population for SGLT2i use. Out-of-pocket payment subsidy or cost-sharing reduction of SGLT2i should be prioritized in patient subgroups in which SGLT2i has high economic values.
D. Guan: None. S. Niu: None. V. Fonseca: Consultant; Abbott, Asahi Kasei Corporation, Bayer AG, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Research Support; Fractyl Health, Inc., Jaguar Gene Therapy, Stock/Shareholder; Abbott, Amgen Inc., BRAVO4Health, Mellitus Health. L. Shi: None. N. Laiteerapong: None. J. Guo: None. H. Shao: Board Member; BRAVO4HEALTH, LLC.