This study aimed to identify patient characteristics associated with the effectiveness of albiglutide in preventing MACE among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the HARMONY trial. The HARMONY trial was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to examine the effectiveness of albiglutide in reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease in 9,463 individuals with T2D. We used the causal forest (CF) and causal tree (CT) algorithm to identify participant characteristics that modulate the effectiveness of albiglutide in preventing MACE from a list of 16 candidate variables (demographics, disease histories, medications, and biomarkers) at the study baseline. A computer-driven approach identified that study participants with baseline A1c level above 8.0% (absolute risk change (ARC) : -2.77%, 95% confidence interval [-4.21% to -1.28%]; relative risk (RR) : 0.74 [0.62 to 0.87]) , or diabetes duration less than 15 years (ARC: -2.55% [ -3.85% to -1.04%]; RR: 0.70 [0.58 to 0.85]) , or DBP higher than 70 mmHg (ARC: -2.40% [-3.68% to -1.21%]; RR: 0.73 [0.62 to 0.86]) , or heart rate below 70 per hour (ARC: -2.88% [-4.76% to -1.04%]; RR: 0.70 [0.56 to 0.88]) , or ALP level below 70 U/L (ARC: -3.10% [-3.10% to -1.30%]; RR: 0.65 [0.52 to 0.81]) , or serum creatinine level below 90 umol/L (ARC: -1.99% [-3.33% to -0.81%]; RR: 0.74 [0.61 to 0.88]) benefited from albiglutide in reducing the risk of MACE. In contrast, their counterparts who did not have these characteristics did not receive statistically significant MACE risk reduction from albiglutide. Our study identified clinical features that may result in greater benefits of albiglutide on MACE than what would be expected from a population average. Clinicians may consider these individualized characteristics for better-targeted albiglutide treatment. However, future GLP-1 trials may help to confirm this approach to optimize outcomes.


H.Kianmehr: None. Y.Lin: None. L.Shi: None. V.Fonseca: Consultant; Abbott, Asahi Kasei Corporation, Bayer AG, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Research Support; Fractyl Health, Inc., Jaguar Gene Therapy, Stock/Shareholder; Abbott, Amgen Inc., BRAVO4Health, Mellitus Health. J.Guo: None. H.Shao: Board Member; BRAVO4HEALTH, LLC.

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