Introduction: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) diagnosis is often (in adults) followed by a (‘honeymoon’) period of reduced insulin need, also called partial clinical remission (pCR), which is associated with better outcomes. Various definitions of pCR exist.
Aim: To create an online calculator to predict probability of pCR in adult-onset T1D 12-mths post-diagnosis.
Methods: We analysed data from 133 adults at T1D diagnosis (mean±SD age: 27±6, HbA1c: 11.1±2.0%, BMI: 22.5±3.7 kg/m2), 3-mths and 12-mths later. All were enrolled in the prospective observational InLipODiab (NCT02306005) study. We used 4 definitions for pCR 12-mths post-diagnosis: 1) insulin dose-adjusted HbA1c≤9%; 2) insulin dose<0.3U/kg/24h and HbA1c≤6.4%; 3) insulin dose<0.5U/kg/24h and HbA1c<7%; 4) stimulated C-peptide >300pmol/L. Exhaustive search was used to find the best models (based on AIC) based on usually available data at diagnosis and 3-mths. Calculator (Figure 1) available at http://www.bit.ly/T1D-partial-remission.
Results: There was low concordance between pCR definitions (Cohen’s weighted kappa 0.01-0.61.) Combination of age, HbA1c, diastolic BP, triglycerides and smoking at T1D onset predicted pCR (12-mths) with AUC=0.84. HbA1c, triglycerides and insulin dose 3-mths post-diagnosis had an AUC=0.89.
Conclusion: A new online calculator can predict pCR in adult-onset T1D for clinical and research use.
A.Grzelka-wozniak: None. A.S.Januszewski: None. J.Flotynska: None. A.Jenkins: Advisory Panel; Insulet Corporation, Board Member; Insulin for Life, Research Support; Abbott Diabetes, Medtronic, Hemsley Charitable Trust, Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF), National Institutes of Health. D.Zozulinska-ziolkiewicz: Advisory Panel; Abbott, Lilly, Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Medtronic, Speaker's Bureau; Abbott, Ascensia Diabetes Care, Novo Nordisk, Medtronic, Boehringer-Ingelheim, AstraZeneca. A.Uruska: Other Relationship; Lilly, Boehringer-Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, Ascensia Diabetes Care, Sanofi.
