Impaired muscle strength, balance, and flexibility have been associated with the development of type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis. A physical score (PS), which integrates these physical fitness indices, could be expected to better predict future metabolic diseases. We investigated the longitudinal relationship between the baseline PS and changes in PS and future DM and MetS. Analyzed were 5,718 persons (4,068 men) aged 30 to 69 y without DM who underwent physical fitness tests. Principal component analysis was performed on the correlation matrix of the physical fitness test results according to age and sex. The PS was defined as the first principal component score. Associations between PSs at the start of observation (year −2), change in the PS two years later (year 0) and the incidence of DM at the end of observation (until year 3) were examined by logistic regression analysis. The same analysis was performed for 5,304 persons (3,729 men) without MetS at baseline. Although no significant difference was found in the incidence of DM, a significant difference was found in the incidence of MetS; odds ratio was 1.39 (1.20, 1.61) for each decrease of 1 in the PS in year −2 and 1.51 (1.18, 1.92) for each decrease of 1 in the change in PS from year -2 to year 0. = Results showed that the PS was a simple and non-invasive predictor of MetS.


T.Sato: None. K.Kato: None. H.Sone: Research Support; Novo Nordisk, Astellas Pharma Inc., Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings Co., Ltd., Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Eisai Co., Ltd., Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. K.Fujihara: None. M.H.Yamada: None. Y.Yaguchi: None. M.Yamamoto: None. M.Kitazawa: None. H.Ishiguro: None. T.Osawa: None. T.Yamada: None.


Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (21K11569)

Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. More information is available at