Introduction & Objective: While the prevalence of young-onset type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is well described, population-based incidence data are scarce. We estimated secular trends (2000-2020) in diabetes incidence with an onset age at 15-39 years.
Methods: We used aggregated data from registries, national health insurance schemes, or other administrative sources in eight high-income countries or jurisdictions. We used clinical diagnosis and ICD codes, and separated diabetes type based on time to insulin, continuous insulin use, and age of diabetes onset. Poisson regression models included age and calendar time with spline effects, stratified by sex and diabetes type.
Results: There were 0.35 million incident diabetes cases for 0.35 billion person-years of follow-up. The figure shows stable type 1 diabetes (T1DM) incidence in Denmark, Hungary, and Japan and increasing incidence in Australia, Finland, Scotland, South Korea, and Spain (Catalonia) (estimated annual change (EAC) of 0.5% to 6.1%). Incidence of T2DM increased in 50% of jurisdictions (EAC of 2.6% to 8.5%), with higher magnitude in Asian (4.8% in South Korea and 8.5% in Japan) than in non-Asian jurisdictions (2.6% in Denmark and 3.4% in Finland). T2DM incidence was stable in Australia and Hungary and decreased in Scotland and Spain (Catalonia).
Conclusion: Incidence of clinically diagnosed young-onset T2DM increased in some high-income countries but not universally.
D.J. Magliano: None. L. Chen: None. J.I. Morton: None. A. Salim: None. B. Carstensen: Stock/Shareholder; Novo Nordisk. E.W. Gregg: None. M.E. Pavkov: None. M. Arffman: Research Support; Roche Pharmaceuticals. H.M. Colhoun: Stock/Shareholder; Bayer Inc., Roche Pharmaceuticals. Research Support; Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF), IQVIA Inc., Diabetes UK, European Union. Advisory Panel; Novo Nordisk, Bayer Inc. K. Ha: None. T. Imamura: None. G. Jermendy: None. D. Kim: None. Z. Kiss: Employee; Merck & Co., Inc. D. Mauricio: Speaker's Bureau; Abbott, Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc., Lilly Diabetes. Advisory Panel; Sanofi. Speaker's Bureau; Novo Nordisk. Advisory Panel; Novo Nordisk. S.J. McGurnaghan: None. Y. Nishioka: Speaker's Bureau; Sanofi, Daiichi Sankyo. S. Wild: Other Relationship; Novo Nordisk, Novo Nordisk Foundation. K. Winell: None. J.E. Shaw: Advisory Panel; GlaxoSmithKline plc. Research Support; AstraZeneca. Advisory Panel; AstraZeneca. Speaker's Bureau; AstraZeneca, Roche Diabetes Care, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Zuellig Pharma Holdings Pte. Ltd. Advisory Panel; Novo Nordisk. Speaker's Bureau; Roche Diagnostics. Advisory Panel; Roche Diagnostics, Eli Lilly and Company. Speaker's Bureau; Eli Lilly and Company. Advisory Panel; Abbott, Mylan. Speaker's Bureau; Sanofi.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, United States
