Introduction & Objective: Early identification of at-risk CKD can facilitate timely interventions and improve patient (pt) outcomes. This study applied a previously published and validated machine learning model, Klinrisk, to predict CKD progression risk in a US population.
Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted in 1,050,552 adult pts with CKD from Optum’s electronic health records database (1/1/2007 - 9/30/2022). Klinrisk was applied to predict risk of CKD progression. The predicted risk was used to classify pts into 3 risk groups: low, medium, and high, which were compared to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) classification criteria. Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis of actual disease progression was performed in each risk group defined by 2-year predicted risk.
Results: Pts classified as high-risk were older, with a larger proportion of males, lower eGFR levels, and higher urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) levels. Compared to the KDIGO criteria, Klinrisk identified more pts who progressed into medium and high-risk groups. Observed progression rate matched the predicted progression risk with clear separations observed for different risk groups (Figure).
Conclusion: The Klinrisk model accurately identifies pts at high-risk, enabling early detection and intervention.
N. Tangri: Consultant; AstraZeneca. Research Support; Bayer Inc. Consultant; Bayer Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Roche Diagnostics, Otsuka America Pharmaceutical, Inc. Other Relationship; Klinrisk. R. Singh: None. K.A. Betts: Consultant; Bayer Inc. Y. Du: Employee; Bayer Inc. Stock/Shareholder; Bayer Inc. S. Gao: Other Relationship; Bayer Inc. A. Katta: None. Y. Farag: Employee; Bayer Inc. S.T. Fatoba: Employee; Bayer Inc. H. Liu: Other Relationship; Bayer Inc. J. Chen: Other Relationship; Bayer Inc. T. Ferguson: Stock/Shareholder; Klinrisk Inc. Consultant; Klinrisk Inc., Strategic Health Resources Ltd., ClinPredict Ltd, AlphaLabs. R. Whitlock: None. S. Leon: Other Relationship; Quanta Dialysis Technologies. A.K. Singh: Consultant; Bayer Inc., GlaxoSmithKline plc, Novartis AG, Novo Nordisk.
