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TABLE 6

Performance of type 1 diabetes risk stratification models

Risk stratification model*nType 1 diabetesDiabetes risk
5 years10 years
Model 1     
 Category A 100 22 (37%) 12% (6–18) 25% (15–35) 
 Category B 57 25 (42%) 30% (18–42) 59% (41–77) 
 Category C 23 12 (20%) 48% (26–70) 69% (43–95) 
Model 2     
 Category A 103 19 (32%) 7% (2–12) 20% (11–29) 
 Category B 38 12 (20%) 19% (6–32) 47% (25–69) 
 Category C 30 19 (32%) 54% (34–74) 85% (66–100) 
 Category D 9 (15%) 89% (68–100) 100% 
Model 3     
 Category A 122 24 (41%) 8% (3–13) 23% (14–32) 
 Category B 51 28 (47%) 43% (28–58) 69% (52–86) 
 Category C 7 (12%) 86% (60–100) 100% 
Model 4     
 Category A 118 26 (44%) 11% (5–17) 27% (17–37) 
 Category B 32 11 (19%) 24% (8–40) 41% (20–62) 
 Category C 30 22 (37%) 63% (45–81) 86% (70–100) 
Risk stratification model*nType 1 diabetesDiabetes risk
5 years10 years
Model 1     
 Category A 100 22 (37%) 12% (6–18) 25% (15–35) 
 Category B 57 25 (42%) 30% (18–42) 59% (41–77) 
 Category C 23 12 (20%) 48% (26–70) 69% (43–95) 
Model 2     
 Category A 103 19 (32%) 7% (2–12) 20% (11–29) 
 Category B 38 12 (20%) 19% (6–32) 47% (25–69) 
 Category C 30 19 (32%) 54% (34–74) 85% (66–100) 
 Category D 9 (15%) 89% (68–100) 100% 
Model 3     
 Category A 122 24 (41%) 8% (3–13) 23% (14–32) 
 Category B 51 28 (47%) 43% (28–58) 69% (52–86) 
 Category C 7 (12%) 86% (60–100) 100% 
Model 4     
 Category A 118 26 (44%) 11% (5–17) 27% (17–37) 
 Category B 32 11 (19%) 24% (8–40) 41% (20–62) 
 Category C 30 22 (37%) 63% (45–81) 86% (70–100) 

Data are n (%) and % (95% CI).

*

Model 1—antibody number: category A = one autoantibody, category B = any two autoantibodies, category C = all three autoantibodies (IAA, IA-2A, GADA); Model 2—antibody titer (IA-2A) and subclass (IA-2A and IAA): category A = none, category B = one, category C = two, category D = all three of high-titer IA-2A, positivity for IgG2 or IgG4 IA-2A, and positivity for IgG2, IgG3 or IgG4 IAA; Model 3—antibody titer (IA-2A and IAA): category A = no high-titer IA-2A or high-titer IAA, category B = high-titer IA-2A or high-titer IAA, category C = high-titer IA-2A and high-titer IAA; Model 4—IA-2A epitopes: category A = IA-2A negative, category B = IA-2A positive but IA-2β autoantibody negative, category C = IA-2β autoantibody positive.

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