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TABLE 2

Retinal vascular caliber and 5-year risk of diabetes

Number at riskIncident diabetes
Number (%) eventsModel 1*Model 2Model 3
Retinal arteriolar caliber      
    Tertile 1: ≤167 μm 254 42 (16.5) 2.14 (1.13–4.05) 2.37 (1.14–4.91) 2.21 (1.02–4.80) 
    Tertile 2: 167–188 μm 301 41 (13.6) 1.50 (0.86–2.60) 1.43 (0.75–2.72) 1.34 (0.66–2.69) 
    Tertile 3: ≥188 μm 248 25 (10.1) 1.00 1.00 1.00 
    P for trend   0.02 0.02 0.04 
Retinal venular caliber      
    Tertile 1: ≤196 μm 264 38 (14.4) 1.00 1.00 1.00 
    Tertile 2: 196–216 μm 287 39 (13.6) 1.10 (0.65–1.84) 0.71 (0.39–1.30) 0.78 (0.42–1.47) 
    Tertile 3: ≥216 μm 252 31 (12.3) 1.11 (0.61–2.01) 0.96 (0.45–1.73) 0.82 (0.40–1.69) 
    P for trend   0.74 0.70 0.58 
Number at riskIncident diabetes
Number (%) eventsModel 1*Model 2Model 3
Retinal arteriolar caliber      
    Tertile 1: ≤167 μm 254 42 (16.5) 2.14 (1.13–4.05) 2.37 (1.14–4.91) 2.21 (1.02–4.80) 
    Tertile 2: 167–188 μm 301 41 (13.6) 1.50 (0.86–2.60) 1.43 (0.75–2.72) 1.34 (0.66–2.69) 
    Tertile 3: ≥188 μm 248 25 (10.1) 1.00 1.00 1.00 
    P for trend   0.02 0.02 0.04 
Retinal venular caliber      
    Tertile 1: ≤196 μm 264 38 (14.4) 1.00 1.00 1.00 
    Tertile 2: 196–216 μm 287 39 (13.6) 1.10 (0.65–1.84) 0.71 (0.39–1.30) 0.78 (0.42–1.47) 
    Tertile 3: ≥216 μm 252 31 (12.3) 1.11 (0.61–2.01) 0.96 (0.45–1.73) 0.82 (0.40–1.69) 
    P for trend   0.74 0.70 0.58 

Data are OR (95% CI) unless otherwise indicated.

*

Adjusted for age, sex, and venular caliber (in models of arteriolar caliber) or arteriolar caliber (in models of venular caliber).

Adjusted for variables in model 1 plus FPG, systolic blood pressure, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, smoking status, and retinopathy.

Adjusted for variables in model 2 plus BMI, presence of hypertension (instead of systolic blood pressure), glucose tolerance status (NGT vs. IFG/IGT), physical activity, education level, microalbumin-to-creatinine ratio, and fasting insulin concentration.

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