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Table 1

Overview of key statistics and results of projection scenarios

2015Projection for 2030
Baseline scenarioPast trends scenarioTarget scenario
Included countries 180 180 180 180 
Population (billion) 7.25 8.39 8.39 8.39 
Global GDP (trillion $)a 73.53 115.30 115.30 115.30 
Prevalence, age-group 20–79 years (%) 8.8 (8.4–9.5) 10.0 (9.5–10.7) 11.8 (11.2–12.7) 9.8 (9.4–10.5) 
Deaths in 1,000s, age-group 20–65 years 3,148 (3,013–3,327) 4,181 (4,001–4,412) 4,566 (4,364–4,822) 2,787 (2,668–2,941) 
Total costs (trillion $)a 1.32 (1.28–1.37) 2.25 (2.18–2.34) 2.48 (2.41–2.58) 2.12 (2.06–2.20) 
Direct costs (trillion $)a 0.86 (0.83–0.89) 1.51 (1.47–1.57) 1.70 (1.65–1.77) 1.50 (1.46–1.56) 
Indirect costs (trillion $)a 0.46 (0.45–0.48) 0.73 (0.71–0.77) 0.78 (0.75–0.82) 0.61 (0.60–0.65) 
 Mortality (%)b 45.7 48.1 46.4 38.3 
 Dropout (%)b 48.3 45.8 47.1 54.5 
 Absenteeism (%)b 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.6 
 Presenteeism (%)b 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 
Share indirect costs (%)c 35.0 32.7 31.3 29.0 
Total costs/global GDP (%) 1.8 (1.7–1.9) 1.9 (1.9–2.0) 2.2 (2.1–2.2) 1.8 (1.8–1.9) 
Mean (total costs/GDP) (%) 1.4 (1.4–1.4) 1.6 (1.6–1.7) 1.9 (1.8–1.9) 1.5 (1.5–1.5) 
 High-income countries only 1.2 (1.2–1.3) 1.3 (1.3–1.4) 1.4 (1.4–1.5) 1.3 (1.3–1.3) 
 Middle-income countries only 1.7 (1.6–1.7) 2.0 (1.9–2.1) 2.3 (2.3–2.4) 1.8 (1.8–1.9) 
 Low-income countries only 0.7 (0.6–0.8) 0.8 (0.8–1.0) 1.0 (0.9–1.1) 0.7 (0.7–0.8) 
2015Projection for 2030
Baseline scenarioPast trends scenarioTarget scenario
Included countries 180 180 180 180 
Population (billion) 7.25 8.39 8.39 8.39 
Global GDP (trillion $)a 73.53 115.30 115.30 115.30 
Prevalence, age-group 20–79 years (%) 8.8 (8.4–9.5) 10.0 (9.5–10.7) 11.8 (11.2–12.7) 9.8 (9.4–10.5) 
Deaths in 1,000s, age-group 20–65 years 3,148 (3,013–3,327) 4,181 (4,001–4,412) 4,566 (4,364–4,822) 2,787 (2,668–2,941) 
Total costs (trillion $)a 1.32 (1.28–1.37) 2.25 (2.18–2.34) 2.48 (2.41–2.58) 2.12 (2.06–2.20) 
Direct costs (trillion $)a 0.86 (0.83–0.89) 1.51 (1.47–1.57) 1.70 (1.65–1.77) 1.50 (1.46–1.56) 
Indirect costs (trillion $)a 0.46 (0.45–0.48) 0.73 (0.71–0.77) 0.78 (0.75–0.82) 0.61 (0.60–0.65) 
 Mortality (%)b 45.7 48.1 46.4 38.3 
 Dropout (%)b 48.3 45.8 47.1 54.5 
 Absenteeism (%)b 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.6 
 Presenteeism (%)b 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 
Share indirect costs (%)c 35.0 32.7 31.3 29.0 
Total costs/global GDP (%) 1.8 (1.7–1.9) 1.9 (1.9–2.0) 2.2 (2.1–2.2) 1.8 (1.8–1.9) 
Mean (total costs/GDP) (%) 1.4 (1.4–1.4) 1.6 (1.6–1.7) 1.9 (1.8–1.9) 1.5 (1.5–1.5) 
 High-income countries only 1.2 (1.2–1.3) 1.3 (1.3–1.4) 1.4 (1.4–1.5) 1.3 (1.3–1.3) 
 Middle-income countries only 1.7 (1.6–1.7) 2.0 (1.9–2.1) 2.3 (2.3–2.4) 1.8 (1.8–1.9) 
 Low-income countries only 0.7 (0.6–0.8) 0.8 (0.8–1.0) 1.0 (0.9–1.1) 0.7 (0.7–0.8) 

Data are presented as n unless indicated otherwise. Numbers in parentheses are 95% CI.

aAbsolute costs and GDP are expressed in terms of constant 2015 U.S. dollars.

bThe fraction of the respective indirect cost component in total indirect costs. 95% CI not shown.

cThe fraction of total costs allotted to indirect costs. 95% CI not shown.

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