Association of weight change and physical activity change with incident metabolic syndrome
| . | Total . | Men . | . | Women . | . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | . | Black . | White . | Black . | White . | ||
| Model 1* | |||||||
| Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) | 1.24 (1.21–1.27) | 1.34 (1.27–1.42) | 1.39 (1.31–1.47) | 1.11 (1.05–1.16) | 1.26 (1.20–1.31) | ||
| Model 2† | |||||||
| Physical activity over time‡ | |||||||
| Regular vs. no activity | 0.40 (0.28–0.57) | 0.47 (0.25–0.88) | 0.45 (0.27–0.75) | 0.22 (0.03–1.60) | 0.19 (0.06–0.59) | ||
| Moderate vs. no activity | 0.82 (0.69–0.97) | 0.82 (0.55–1.24) | 0.76 (0.54–1.08) | 0.96 (0.71–1.31) | 0.75 (0.52–1.08) | ||
| Model 3§ | |||||||
| Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) | 1.23 (1.20–1.27) | 1.35 (1.27–1.42) | 1.38 (1.30–1.46) | 1.10 (1.05–1.16) | 1.24 (1.19–1.30) | ||
| Physical activity over time | |||||||
| Regular vs. no activity | 0.49 (0.34–0.70) | 0.50 (0.26–0.96) | 0.61 (0.36–1.04) | 0.28 (0.04–2.03) | 0.22 (0.05–0.91) | ||
| Moderate vs. no activity | 0.89 (0.74–1.07) | 0.72 (0.46–1.12) | 0.82 (0.57–1.18) | 1.03 (0.75–1.42) | 0.90 (0.62–1.32) | ||
| Model 4‖ | |||||||
| Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) | 1.17 (1.14–1.20) | 1.26 (1.17–1.35) | 1.26 (1.18–1.35) | 1.10 (1.05–1.15) | 1.17 (1.11–1.24) | ||
| Physical activity over time | |||||||
| Regular vs. no activity | 0.65 (0.43–0.98) | 0.76 (0.35–1.66) | 0.74 (0.39–1.41) | 0.50 (0.07–3.80) | 0.38 (0.08–1.76) | ||
| Moderate vs. no activity | 0.93 (0.76–1.14) | 0.94 (0.56–1.59) | 0.85 (0.56–1.30) | 0.93 (0.64–1.35) | 1.14 (0.70–1.87) | ||
| . | Total . | Men . | . | Women . | . | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | . | Black . | White . | Black . | White . | ||
| Model 1* | |||||||
| Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) | 1.24 (1.21–1.27) | 1.34 (1.27–1.42) | 1.39 (1.31–1.47) | 1.11 (1.05–1.16) | 1.26 (1.20–1.31) | ||
| Model 2† | |||||||
| Physical activity over time‡ | |||||||
| Regular vs. no activity | 0.40 (0.28–0.57) | 0.47 (0.25–0.88) | 0.45 (0.27–0.75) | 0.22 (0.03–1.60) | 0.19 (0.06–0.59) | ||
| Moderate vs. no activity | 0.82 (0.69–0.97) | 0.82 (0.55–1.24) | 0.76 (0.54–1.08) | 0.96 (0.71–1.31) | 0.75 (0.52–1.08) | ||
| Model 3§ | |||||||
| Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) | 1.23 (1.20–1.27) | 1.35 (1.27–1.42) | 1.38 (1.30–1.46) | 1.10 (1.05–1.16) | 1.24 (1.19–1.30) | ||
| Physical activity over time | |||||||
| Regular vs. no activity | 0.49 (0.34–0.70) | 0.50 (0.26–0.96) | 0.61 (0.36–1.04) | 0.28 (0.04–2.03) | 0.22 (0.05–0.91) | ||
| Moderate vs. no activity | 0.89 (0.74–1.07) | 0.72 (0.46–1.12) | 0.82 (0.57–1.18) | 1.03 (0.75–1.42) | 0.90 (0.62–1.32) | ||
| Model 4‖ | |||||||
| Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) | 1.17 (1.14–1.20) | 1.26 (1.17–1.35) | 1.26 (1.18–1.35) | 1.10 (1.05–1.15) | 1.17 (1.11–1.24) | ||
| Physical activity over time | |||||||
| Regular vs. no activity | 0.65 (0.43–0.98) | 0.76 (0.35–1.66) | 0.74 (0.39–1.41) | 0.50 (0.07–3.80) | 0.38 (0.08–1.76) | ||
| Moderate vs. no activity | 0.93 (0.76–1.14) | 0.94 (0.56–1.59) | 0.85 (0.56–1.30) | 0.93 (0.64–1.35) | 1.14 (0.70–1.87) | ||
Data are RR (95% CI).
Model 1: age, race, sex, and weight gain.
Model 2: age, race, sex, and physical activity over time.
Regular physical activity, physical activity score above the median (364) at all four examinations; moderately active, activity fluctuated around the median; low activity, physical activity score below the median at all four examinations.
Model 3: age, race, sex, weight gain, and physical activity over time.
Model 4: Model 3 plus education, baseline BMI, baseline physical activity, smoking status, drinking status, crude fiber (quintiles), total dietary fat intake (quintiles), and carbohydrate intake (quintiles).