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Table 4—

Association of weight change and physical activity change with incident metabolic syndrome

TotalMen
Women
BlackWhiteBlackWhite
Model 1*      
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) 1.24 (1.21–1.27) 1.34 (1.27–1.42) 1.39 (1.31–1.47) 1.11 (1.05–1.16) 1.26 (1.20–1.31) 
Model 2      
    Physical activity over time      
        Regular vs. no activity 0.40 (0.28–0.57) 0.47 (0.25–0.88) 0.45 (0.27–0.75) 0.22 (0.03–1.60) 0.19 (0.06–0.59) 
        Moderate vs. no activity 0.82 (0.69–0.97) 0.82 (0.55–1.24) 0.76 (0.54–1.08) 0.96 (0.71–1.31) 0.75 (0.52–1.08) 
Model 3§      
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) 1.23 (1.20–1.27) 1.35 (1.27–1.42) 1.38 (1.30–1.46) 1.10 (1.05–1.16) 1.24 (1.19–1.30) 
    Physical activity over time      
        Regular vs. no activity 0.49 (0.34–0.70) 0.50 (0.26–0.96) 0.61 (0.36–1.04) 0.28 (0.04–2.03) 0.22 (0.05–0.91) 
        Moderate vs. no activity 0.89 (0.74–1.07) 0.72 (0.46–1.12) 0.82 (0.57–1.18) 1.03 (0.75–1.42) 0.90 (0.62–1.32) 
Model 4      
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) 1.17 (1.14–1.20) 1.26 (1.17–1.35) 1.26 (1.18–1.35) 1.10 (1.05–1.15) 1.17 (1.11–1.24) 
    Physical activity over time      
        Regular vs. no activity 0.65 (0.43–0.98) 0.76 (0.35–1.66) 0.74 (0.39–1.41) 0.50 (0.07–3.80) 0.38 (0.08–1.76) 
        Moderate vs. no activity 0.93 (0.76–1.14) 0.94 (0.56–1.59) 0.85 (0.56–1.30) 0.93 (0.64–1.35) 1.14 (0.70–1.87) 
TotalMen
Women
BlackWhiteBlackWhite
Model 1*      
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) 1.24 (1.21–1.27) 1.34 (1.27–1.42) 1.39 (1.31–1.47) 1.11 (1.05–1.16) 1.26 (1.20–1.31) 
Model 2      
    Physical activity over time      
        Regular vs. no activity 0.40 (0.28–0.57) 0.47 (0.25–0.88) 0.45 (0.27–0.75) 0.22 (0.03–1.60) 0.19 (0.06–0.59) 
        Moderate vs. no activity 0.82 (0.69–0.97) 0.82 (0.55–1.24) 0.76 (0.54–1.08) 0.96 (0.71–1.31) 0.75 (0.52–1.08) 
Model 3§      
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) 1.23 (1.20–1.27) 1.35 (1.27–1.42) 1.38 (1.30–1.46) 1.10 (1.05–1.16) 1.24 (1.19–1.30) 
    Physical activity over time      
        Regular vs. no activity 0.49 (0.34–0.70) 0.50 (0.26–0.96) 0.61 (0.36–1.04) 0.28 (0.04–2.03) 0.22 (0.05–0.91) 
        Moderate vs. no activity 0.89 (0.74–1.07) 0.72 (0.46–1.12) 0.82 (0.57–1.18) 1.03 (0.75–1.42) 0.90 (0.62–1.32) 
Model 4      
    Weight gain (per 4.54 kg/10 lb) 1.17 (1.14–1.20) 1.26 (1.17–1.35) 1.26 (1.18–1.35) 1.10 (1.05–1.15) 1.17 (1.11–1.24) 
    Physical activity over time      
        Regular vs. no activity 0.65 (0.43–0.98) 0.76 (0.35–1.66) 0.74 (0.39–1.41) 0.50 (0.07–3.80) 0.38 (0.08–1.76) 
        Moderate vs. no activity 0.93 (0.76–1.14) 0.94 (0.56–1.59) 0.85 (0.56–1.30) 0.93 (0.64–1.35) 1.14 (0.70–1.87) 

Data are RR (95% CI).

*

Model 1: age, race, sex, and weight gain.

Model 2: age, race, sex, and physical activity over time.

Regular physical activity, physical activity score above the median (364) at all four examinations; moderately active, activity fluctuated around the median; low activity, physical activity score below the median at all four examinations.

§

Model 3: age, race, sex, weight gain, and physical activity over time.

Model 4: Model 3 plus education, baseline BMI, baseline physical activity, smoking status, drinking status, crude fiber (quintiles), total dietary fat intake (quintiles), and carbohydrate intake (quintiles).

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