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Table 5—

RRs of developing the metabolic syndrome without abdominal adiposity*

Model 1Model 2Model 3§
Age (per 5 years) 1.36 (1.12–1.65) 1.34 (1.09–1.65) 1.42 (1.14–1.77) 
Race    
    Black 0.87 (0.67–1.14) 0.54 (0.40–0.73) 0.51 (0.37–0.70) 
    White 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Sex    
    Men 2.54 (1.93–3.35) 3.52 (2.55–4.88) 3.89 (2.77–5.47) 
    Women 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Education    
    High school or less 1.73 (1.26–2.36) 1.55 (1.12–2.15) 1.52 (1.07–2.14) 
    More than high school 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
BMI (per 4.7 kg/m21.79 (1.62–1.97) 1.76 (1.58–1.96) 1.66 (1.46–1.88) 
Physical activity (per 299.5 units) 0.89 (0.78–1.03) 1.00 (0.86–1.16) 1.01 (0.84–1.20) 
Smoking status    
    Current 1.06 (0.79–1.44) 1.08 (0.77–1.50) 1.01 (0.71–1.44) 
    Former 0.86 (0.56–1.31) 0.86 (0.55–1.32) 0.86 (0.54–1.36) 
    Never 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Alcohol intake    
    No drinks/day 2.22 (1.66–2.97) 1.83 (1.32–2.53) 1.56 (1.10–2.22) 
    One to three drinks/day 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
    Three or more drinks/day 1.04 (0.60–1.77) 1.01 (0.54–1.87) 1.04 (0.55–1.98) 
Carbohydrate intake (% energy)    
    Q1 (25–41%) 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
    Q2 (41–45%) 1.19 (0.80–1.77) 1.31 (0.85–2.02) 1.25 (0.80–1.96) 
    Q3 (45–48%) 0.88 (0.57–1.37) 0.96 (0.56–1.64) 0.82 (0.46–1.46) 
    Q4 (48–52%) 1.22 (0.80–1.84) 1.26 (0.70–2.28) 1.25 (0.67–2.32) 
    Q5 (52–85%) 1.43 (0.95–2.14) 1.45 (0.72–2.94) 1.41 (0.67–2.98) 
Crude fiber (g)    
    Q1: F (0.3–2.7)/M (0.6–3.6) 1.25 (0.81–1.93) 1.06 (0.67–1.68) 1.06 (0.65–1.74) 
    Q2: F (2.8–3.8)/M (3.6–5.0) 1.44 (0.95–2.18) 1.22 (0.79–1.89) 1.20 (0.75–1.92) 
    Q3: F (3.8–5.0)/M (5.0–6.4) 1.36 (0.89–2.08) 1.13 (0.72–1.76) 1.32 (0.82–2.12) 
    Q4: F (5.0–6.9)/M (6.4–8.5) 1.11 (0.72–1.73) 1.10 (0.70–1.73) 1.24 (0.77–2.00) 
    Q5: F (6.9–33)/M (8.6–29.8) 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Total fat intake (% energy)    
    Q1 (11–33%) 1.56 (0.98–2.49) 1.50 (0.82–2.75) 1.37 (0.72–2.62) 
    Q2 (33–36%) 1.99 (1.28–3.10) 2.12 (1.28–3.53) 2.06 (1.21–3.49) 
    Q3 (36–39%) 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
    Q4 (39–42%) 1.48 (0.94–2.35) 1.79 (1.08–2.99) 1.75 (1.02–2.99) 
    Q5 (42–59%) 1.83 (1.17–2.86) 1.94 (1.11–3.39) 1.82 (1.02–3.25) 
Weight change from baseline to year 15 per 4.54 kg (10 lb) 1.23 (1.17–1.28)  1.16 (1.11–1.21) 
Physical activity over time    
    Regular 0.49 (0.30–0.81)  0.72 (0.40–1.30) 
    Moderate 0.97 (0.73–1.29)  1.10 (0.79–1.54) 
    Low 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Model 1Model 2Model 3§
Age (per 5 years) 1.36 (1.12–1.65) 1.34 (1.09–1.65) 1.42 (1.14–1.77) 
Race    
    Black 0.87 (0.67–1.14) 0.54 (0.40–0.73) 0.51 (0.37–0.70) 
    White 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Sex    
    Men 2.54 (1.93–3.35) 3.52 (2.55–4.88) 3.89 (2.77–5.47) 
    Women 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Education    
    High school or less 1.73 (1.26–2.36) 1.55 (1.12–2.15) 1.52 (1.07–2.14) 
    More than high school 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
BMI (per 4.7 kg/m21.79 (1.62–1.97) 1.76 (1.58–1.96) 1.66 (1.46–1.88) 
Physical activity (per 299.5 units) 0.89 (0.78–1.03) 1.00 (0.86–1.16) 1.01 (0.84–1.20) 
Smoking status    
    Current 1.06 (0.79–1.44) 1.08 (0.77–1.50) 1.01 (0.71–1.44) 
    Former 0.86 (0.56–1.31) 0.86 (0.55–1.32) 0.86 (0.54–1.36) 
    Never 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Alcohol intake    
    No drinks/day 2.22 (1.66–2.97) 1.83 (1.32–2.53) 1.56 (1.10–2.22) 
    One to three drinks/day 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
    Three or more drinks/day 1.04 (0.60–1.77) 1.01 (0.54–1.87) 1.04 (0.55–1.98) 
Carbohydrate intake (% energy)    
    Q1 (25–41%) 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
    Q2 (41–45%) 1.19 (0.80–1.77) 1.31 (0.85–2.02) 1.25 (0.80–1.96) 
    Q3 (45–48%) 0.88 (0.57–1.37) 0.96 (0.56–1.64) 0.82 (0.46–1.46) 
    Q4 (48–52%) 1.22 (0.80–1.84) 1.26 (0.70–2.28) 1.25 (0.67–2.32) 
    Q5 (52–85%) 1.43 (0.95–2.14) 1.45 (0.72–2.94) 1.41 (0.67–2.98) 
Crude fiber (g)    
    Q1: F (0.3–2.7)/M (0.6–3.6) 1.25 (0.81–1.93) 1.06 (0.67–1.68) 1.06 (0.65–1.74) 
    Q2: F (2.8–3.8)/M (3.6–5.0) 1.44 (0.95–2.18) 1.22 (0.79–1.89) 1.20 (0.75–1.92) 
    Q3: F (3.8–5.0)/M (5.0–6.4) 1.36 (0.89–2.08) 1.13 (0.72–1.76) 1.32 (0.82–2.12) 
    Q4: F (5.0–6.9)/M (6.4–8.5) 1.11 (0.72–1.73) 1.10 (0.70–1.73) 1.24 (0.77–2.00) 
    Q5: F (6.9–33)/M (8.6–29.8) 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
Total fat intake (% energy)    
    Q1 (11–33%) 1.56 (0.98–2.49) 1.50 (0.82–2.75) 1.37 (0.72–2.62) 
    Q2 (33–36%) 1.99 (1.28–3.10) 2.12 (1.28–3.53) 2.06 (1.21–3.49) 
    Q3 (36–39%) 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 
    Q4 (39–42%) 1.48 (0.94–2.35) 1.79 (1.08–2.99) 1.75 (1.02–2.99) 
    Q5 (42–59%) 1.83 (1.17–2.86) 1.94 (1.11–3.39) 1.82 (1.02–3.25) 
Weight change from baseline to year 15 per 4.54 kg (10 lb) 1.23 (1.17–1.28)  1.16 (1.11–1.21) 
Physical activity over time    
    Regular 0.49 (0.30–0.81)  0.72 (0.40–1.30) 
    Moderate 0.97 (0.73–1.29)  1.10 (0.79–1.54) 
    Low 1 (referent) 1.00 1.00 

Data are RR (95% CI).

*

Metabolic syndrome components without large waist: high blood pressure and high triglyceride level, low HDL cholesterol, and high glucose levels (cumulative incidence = 223).

All variables adjusted for age, race, and sex. Estimates for age, race, and sex are generated from one model with each of those three characteristics. All variables are from the baseline examination only except for weight change and physical activity change.

Multivariable 1 model with all variables listed in the model.

§

Multivariable 2 model with all variables listed in the model including weight gain and physical activity over time.

Regular physical activity, physical activity score above the median (364) at all four examinations; moderately active, activity fluctuated around the median; low activity, physical activity score below the median at all four examinations. Q, quintile.

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