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Table 3—

Areas under ROC curves and 95% CIs for models predicting the incidence of CVD in the San Antonio Heart Study

Area under the ROC curve (95% CI)
AllMenWomen
Models    
 Fasting glucose (FG) 59.4% (55–66) 59.3% (53–66) 57.4% (49–67) 
 2-h glucose (2-h G) 62.4% (57–68) 64.7% (58–71) 59.9% (53–69) 
 Multivariate without 2-h Ga 81.8% (78–86) 83.1% (79–87) 78.0% (72–85) 
 Multivariate with 2-h Gb 81.9% (78–86) 83.1% (79–87) 78.1% (72–85) 
 P values
 
  
 All Men Women 
Significance testing    
 2-h G versus FG 0.47 0.12 0.48 
 Multivariate without 2-h G versus 2-h G <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0003 
 Multivariate with versus without 2-h G 0.42 0.92 0.36 
Area under the ROC curve (95% CI)
AllMenWomen
Models    
 Fasting glucose (FG) 59.4% (55–66) 59.3% (53–66) 57.4% (49–67) 
 2-h glucose (2-h G) 62.4% (57–68) 64.7% (58–71) 59.9% (53–69) 
 Multivariate without 2-h Ga 81.8% (78–86) 83.1% (79–87) 78.0% (72–85) 
 Multivariate with 2-h Gb 81.9% (78–86) 83.1% (79–87) 78.1% (72–85) 
 P values
 
  
 All Men Women 
Significance testing    
 2-h G versus FG 0.47 0.12 0.48 
 Multivariate without 2-h G versus 2-h G <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0003 
 Multivariate with versus without 2-h G 0.42 0.92 0.36 
a

For both sexes combined, the model was: ln(p/(1 − p)) = −11.953 + 0.087*** (age) + 0.953*** (sex) − 0.218 (MA) + 0.004*(LDLC) + 0.015** (SBP) + 0.048** (BMI) + 0.523** (family history) + 0.404* (smoking) where P = the probability of developing CVD over the follow-up period; age is in years; sex = 1 if male, 0 if female; MA = 1 if Mexican-American, 0 if non-Hispanic white; LDLC = LDL cholesterol in mg/dl; SBP = systolic blood pressure in mmHg; BMI = body mass index in kg/m2; family history = 1 if at least one parent or sibling had a heart attack, otherwise 0; smoking = 1 if smoked cigarettes at baseline, otherwise 0. *P < 0.05; **P < 0.01; ***P < 0.001. For men the model was: ln(p/(1 − p)) = −12.795 + 0.096*** (age) − 0.127 (MA) + 0.008** (LDLC) + 0.020** (SBP) + 0.053*(BMI) + 0.600** (family history) + 0.237 (smoking) and for women the model was: ln(p/(1 − p)) = −9.956 + 0.075*** (age) − 0.394 (MA) − 0.002 (LDLC) + 0.012 (SBP) + 0.045 (BMI) + 0.394 (family history) + 0.736* (smoking).

b

For both sexes combined, the model was: ln(p/(1 − p)) = −11.928 + 0.085*** (age) + 0.969*** (sex) − 0.246 (MA) + 0.004* (LDLC) + 0.014* (SBP) + 0.045** (BMI) + 0.530** (family history) + 0.414* (smoking) + 0.001 (2-h G) where 2-h G = 2-h glucose in mg/dl. For men the model was: ln(p/(1 − p)) = −12.749 + 0.095*** (age) − 0.147 (MA) + 0.008** (LDLC) + 0.019** (SBP) + 0.050* (BMI) + 0.603** (family history) + 0.245 (smoking) + 0.001 (2-h G) and for women the model was: ln(p/(1 − p)) = −9.932 + 0.073*** (age) − 0.434 (MA) − 0.002 (LDLC) + 0.011 (SBP) + 0.041 (BMI) + 0.402 (family history) + 0.750* (smoking) + 0.002 (2-h G).

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