Supply and demand scenarios
| . | Supply . | Demand . |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1 | Current fellowship positions and fill rates persist into future. 457 endocrinology positions, 86% filled. 57% are IMGs; 80% of IMGs remain in the U.S. to practice. No change in retirement rates. | Demand affected only proportionately with population growth. |
| Scenario 2 | All of above assumptions. | Demand exceeds supply by 15% in 1999 (based on trends in patient visits, waiting times, and benchmarking). |
| Scenario 3 | All of above assumptions. | Demand grows in proportion to population. Modest managed care growth: 3% in 2000–2005; 2% in 2006–2010; 1% in 2011–2015. No growth thereafter. (This growth results in a 2% decline in demand for endocrinologists.) |
| Scenario 4 | All of above assumptions. | Demand grows in proportion to population, except that the over-65 population growth results in a 15% greater increase in the demand for adult endocrinologists (see utilization index and ref. 9). |
| Scenario 5 | All of above assumptions. | 1% per year growth in per capita real income (a 10% increase in real income is associated with a 2–4% increase in demand) (14). |
| Scenario 6 | All of above assumptions. | Prevalence of diabetes grows by 1% per year and endocrinologists’ share grows proportionally. |
| . | Supply . | Demand . |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1 | Current fellowship positions and fill rates persist into future. 457 endocrinology positions, 86% filled. 57% are IMGs; 80% of IMGs remain in the U.S. to practice. No change in retirement rates. | Demand affected only proportionately with population growth. |
| Scenario 2 | All of above assumptions. | Demand exceeds supply by 15% in 1999 (based on trends in patient visits, waiting times, and benchmarking). |
| Scenario 3 | All of above assumptions. | Demand grows in proportion to population. Modest managed care growth: 3% in 2000–2005; 2% in 2006–2010; 1% in 2011–2015. No growth thereafter. (This growth results in a 2% decline in demand for endocrinologists.) |
| Scenario 4 | All of above assumptions. | Demand grows in proportion to population, except that the over-65 population growth results in a 15% greater increase in the demand for adult endocrinologists (see utilization index and ref. 9). |
| Scenario 5 | All of above assumptions. | 1% per year growth in per capita real income (a 10% increase in real income is associated with a 2–4% increase in demand) (14). |
| Scenario 6 | All of above assumptions. | Prevalence of diabetes grows by 1% per year and endocrinologists’ share grows proportionally. |