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Table 1

Multiple ordered logistic regression model to predict progression to IFG/IGT or type 2 diabetes in a 24-year follow-up

PredictorReference categoryPredictor [prevalence (%)]Odds ratio (IFG/IGT)95% CI (IFG/IGT)Odds ratio (type 2 diabetes)95% CI (type 2 diabetes)
Fasting insulin Q5 Q1–Q4 103 (20) 1.67 0.94–2.95 1.98 1.13–3.48 
BMI ≤27 kg/m2 <27 kg/m2 125 (24.3) 1.33 0.77–2.27 1.86 1.10–3.14 
Ethnic origin Europe/America 216 (41.9) 1.0 — 1.0 — 
    Yemen  96 (18.6) 1.58 0.83–2.99 1.84 1.0–3.41 
    Middle East  127 (24.7) 1.11 0.62–1.98 0.64 0.34–1.18 
    North Africa  76 (14.8) 2.65 1.38–5.11 1.51 0.75–3.04 
Fasting blood glucose, Q5 Q1–Q4 103 (20) 1.99 1.10–3.61 1.67 0.90–3.09 
Male sex Female 259 (50.3) 1.40 0.88–2.23 1.47 0.91–2.37 
Blood pressure ≥130/85 mmHg <130/85 mmHg 157 (30.5) 1.57 0.96–2.58 1.49 0.91–2.46 
Triglycerides ≥150 mg/dl <150 mg/dl 124 (24.1) 0.93 0.53–1.63 1.67 0.99–2.82 
Sedentary Physically active 215 (41.7) 1.49 0.94–2.36 1.11 0.69–1.78 
Ever smoked Never smoked 202 (39.2) 1.03 0.64–1.67 1.22 0.75–1.97 
Age 10-year increments — 0.75 0.54–1.06 0.84 0.60–1.18 
PredictorReference categoryPredictor [prevalence (%)]Odds ratio (IFG/IGT)95% CI (IFG/IGT)Odds ratio (type 2 diabetes)95% CI (type 2 diabetes)
Fasting insulin Q5 Q1–Q4 103 (20) 1.67 0.94–2.95 1.98 1.13–3.48 
BMI ≤27 kg/m2 <27 kg/m2 125 (24.3) 1.33 0.77–2.27 1.86 1.10–3.14 
Ethnic origin Europe/America 216 (41.9) 1.0 — 1.0 — 
    Yemen  96 (18.6) 1.58 0.83–2.99 1.84 1.0–3.41 
    Middle East  127 (24.7) 1.11 0.62–1.98 0.64 0.34–1.18 
    North Africa  76 (14.8) 2.65 1.38–5.11 1.51 0.75–3.04 
Fasting blood glucose, Q5 Q1–Q4 103 (20) 1.99 1.10–3.61 1.67 0.90–3.09 
Male sex Female 259 (50.3) 1.40 0.88–2.23 1.47 0.91–2.37 
Blood pressure ≥130/85 mmHg <130/85 mmHg 157 (30.5) 1.57 0.96–2.58 1.49 0.91–2.46 
Triglycerides ≥150 mg/dl <150 mg/dl 124 (24.1) 0.93 0.53–1.63 1.67 0.99–2.82 
Sedentary Physically active 215 (41.7) 1.49 0.94–2.36 1.11 0.69–1.78 
Ever smoked Never smoked 202 (39.2) 1.03 0.64–1.67 1.22 0.75–1.97 
Age 10-year increments — 0.75 0.54–1.06 0.84 0.60–1.18 

*IFG/IGT = IFG or IGT or IFG + IGT. Q, quintile.

†Prevalence of European/American in the sample.

‡Physical activity level at follow-up was used as a proxy for the level of physical activity at baseline: Subjects who reported doing no leisure-time physical activity during follow-up were categorized as “sedentary” and those who reported practicing any type of any duration of intentional physical activity were categorized as “physically active.”

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