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Table 2

Summary of select existing type 2 diabetes prediction models and characteristics of original cohort

Study/versionNAverage follow-up (years)Baseline for model developmentPopulation sampleVariablesOutcome ascertainment
ARIC: clinical model plus fasting glucose and lipids 7,915 1987–1989 85% white, 15% AA Age, race, waist circumference, height, parental history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure Elevated 2-h glucose, elevated fasting glucose, diabetes medications, or report of a clinical diagnosis during follow-up 
Framingham: multivariate prediction with continuous variables 3,140 Mid-1990s 99% white, 0% AA Age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, parent history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure Diabetes medications or elevated fasting glucose 
San Antonio Heart Study: clinical model with no 2-h glucose 3,004 7.5 1979–1982, 1984–1988 61% Mexican American, 39% white, 0% AA Age, sex, Mexican American ethnicity, BMI, family history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure Diabetes medications, elevated fasting glucose, elevated 2-h glucose, or self-report of physician diagnosis 
Study/versionNAverage follow-up (years)Baseline for model developmentPopulation sampleVariablesOutcome ascertainment
ARIC: clinical model plus fasting glucose and lipids 7,915 1987–1989 85% white, 15% AA Age, race, waist circumference, height, parental history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure Elevated 2-h glucose, elevated fasting glucose, diabetes medications, or report of a clinical diagnosis during follow-up 
Framingham: multivariate prediction with continuous variables 3,140 Mid-1990s 99% white, 0% AA Age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, parent history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure Diabetes medications or elevated fasting glucose 
San Antonio Heart Study: clinical model with no 2-h glucose 3,004 7.5 1979–1982, 1984–1988 61% Mexican American, 39% white, 0% AA Age, sex, Mexican American ethnicity, BMI, family history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure Diabetes medications, elevated fasting glucose, elevated 2-h glucose, or self-report of physician diagnosis 

Prediction models used to calculate probability (diabetes) = exp(x) / [1 + exp(x)]. ARIC study logistic regression model: x = −9.9808 + 0.0173 * age in years + 0.4433 * AA race + 0.4981 * 1; if parent history of diabetes is present, + 0.0880 * fasting glucose in mg/dL + 0.0111 * systolic blood pressure in mmHg + 0.0273 * waist circumference in cm − 0.0326 * height in cm − 0.0122 * HDL cholesterol in mg/dL + 0.00271 * triglycerides in mg/dL. Framingham Study logistic regression model: x = −18.607 − 0.0101 * age in years − 0.4308 * sex (1 if male, 0 if female) + 0.4383 * 1 if parent history of diabetes; if present, + 0.03922 * BMI + 0.001 * systolic blood pressure in mmHg − 0.0488 * HDL in mg/dL + 0.0488 * waist circumference in cm + 0.1398 * fasting glucose in mg/dL. San Antonio Heart Study logistic regression model: x = −13.415 + 0.028 * age in years + 0.661 * sex (1 if female, 0 if male) + 0.412 * 1 if Mexican American (all 0 for this study) + 0.079 * fasting glucose in mg/dL + 0.018 * systolic blood pressure in mmHg − 0.039 * HDL in mg/dL + 0.070 * BMI + 0.481 * 1 if family history of diabetes is present.

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