Prediction of diabetes remission: logistic models and ROC analyses
| . | Overall . | Medical* . | Surgical overall C (n = 415) . | GO . | GD . | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | A (n = 727) . | B (n = 312) . | Without T. of S. C1 . | With T. of S.** C2 . | D (n = 318) . | E (n = 97) . | ||||||||||
| Variable . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | ||||
| Logistic regression after stepwise elimination | ||||||||||||||||
| Intercept | 3.71 | <0.001 | 1.895 | 0.103 | 0.089 | 0.942 | 2.83 | <0.001 | 3.27 | <0.001 | 2.838 | <0.001 | ||||
| Age | −0.042 | 0.005 | ||||||||||||||
| Fasting glycemia (mmol/L) | −0.118 | 0.004 | −0.306 | 0.051 | −0.145 | 0.004 | −0.141 | 0.011 | −0.186 | 0.006 | ||||||
| Diabetes duration | −0.192 | <0.001 | −0.910 | 0.013 | −0.210 | <0.001 | −0.220 | <0.001 | −0.197 | 0.004 | −0.273 | <0.001 | ||||
| BMI | 0.059 | 0.036 | ||||||||||||||
| T. of S. | 2.180 | <0.001 | ||||||||||||||
| Type of therapy (level 1) | −0.819 | <0.001 | −2.247 | 0.042 | −1.22 | <0.001 | −1.364 | <0.001 | ||||||||
| Type of therapy (level 2) | −0.282 | 0.473 | 0.832 | 0.582 | −1.13 | 0.054 | −1.783 | 0.03 | ||||||||
| . | Overall . | Medical* . | Surgical overall C (n = 415) . | GO . | GD . | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | A (n = 727) . | B (n = 312) . | Without T. of S. C1 . | With T. of S.** C2 . | D (n = 318) . | E (n = 97) . | ||||||||||
| Variable . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | β . | P value . | ||||
| Logistic regression after stepwise elimination | ||||||||||||||||
| Intercept | 3.71 | <0.001 | 1.895 | 0.103 | 0.089 | 0.942 | 2.83 | <0.001 | 3.27 | <0.001 | 2.838 | <0.001 | ||||
| Age | −0.042 | 0.005 | ||||||||||||||
| Fasting glycemia (mmol/L) | −0.118 | 0.004 | −0.306 | 0.051 | −0.145 | 0.004 | −0.141 | 0.011 | −0.186 | 0.006 | ||||||
| Diabetes duration | −0.192 | <0.001 | −0.910 | 0.013 | −0.210 | <0.001 | −0.220 | <0.001 | −0.197 | 0.004 | −0.273 | <0.001 | ||||
| BMI | 0.059 | 0.036 | ||||||||||||||
| T. of S. | 2.180 | <0.001 | ||||||||||||||
| Type of therapy (level 1) | −0.819 | <0.001 | −2.247 | 0.042 | −1.22 | <0.001 | −1.364 | <0.001 | ||||||||
| Type of therapy (level 2) | −0.282 | 0.473 | 0.832 | 0.582 | −1.13 | 0.054 | −1.783 | 0.03 | ||||||||
| Univariate ROC analysis | ||||||||||||||||||
| F | G | H | ||||||||||||||||
| Cutoff (Sens., Spec.) | AUC (95% CI) | Cutoff (Sens., Spec.) | AUC (95% CI) | Cutoff (Sens., Spec.) | AUC (95% CI) | |||||||||||||
| ROC analysis | ||||||||||||||||||
| BMI | ≥44 (32%, 83%) | 0.58 (0.52–0.64) | ||||||||||||||||
| Fasting glycemia (mmol/L) | ≤7.65 (59.1%, 73.1%) | 0.69 (0.63–0.75) | ≤7.6 (62.6%, 72.6%) | 0.71 (0.65–0.77) | ||||||||||||||
| Diabetes duration | ≤1.5 (65.9%, 73.8%) | 0.74 (0.68–0.79) | ≤1.5 (77.9%, 70.6%) | 0.78 (0.72–0.84) | ≤7.5 (92.4%, 55%) | 0.75 (0.61–0.90) | ||||||||||||
| Univariate ROC analysis | ||||||||||||||||||
| F | G | H | ||||||||||||||||
| Cutoff (Sens., Spec.) | AUC (95% CI) | Cutoff (Sens., Spec.) | AUC (95% CI) | Cutoff (Sens., Spec.) | AUC (95% CI) | |||||||||||||
| ROC analysis | ||||||||||||||||||
| BMI | ≥44 (32%, 83%) | 0.58 (0.52–0.64) | ||||||||||||||||
| Fasting glycemia (mmol/L) | ≤7.65 (59.1%, 73.1%) | 0.69 (0.63–0.75) | ≤7.6 (62.6%, 72.6%) | 0.71 (0.65–0.77) | ||||||||||||||
| Diabetes duration | ≤1.5 (65.9%, 73.8%) | 0.74 (0.68–0.79) | ≤1.5 (77.9%, 70.6%) | 0.78 (0.72–0.84) | ≤7.5 (92.4%, 55%) | 0.75 (0.61–0.90) | ||||||||||||
Sens., sensitivity; Spec., specificity; T. of S., type of surgery (GO vs. GD).
*A further model including percent weight change was tested; results were β = −0.41 (P = 0.009) for basal glycemia, β = −0.53 (P < 0.001) for diabetes duration, and β = −0.09 (P = 0.005).
**When type of surgery was included in the model, BMI was no longer significant.