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TABLE 3

ORs for 10-year incidence of type 2 diabetes according to HOMA-IR score (insulin resistance) and Sluiter’s Index (β-cell secretion)

Person-yearsDiabetes casesIncidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI)OR (95% CI)P value
Baseline HOMA-IR score*      
 Quartile 1 1,695 2.4 (0.1–4.7) 1.0  
 Quartile 2 1,687 12 7.1 (3.1–11.1) 2.9 (0.9–9.3) 0.076 
 Quartile 2 1,688 11 6.5 (2.7–10.3) 2.5 (0.7–8.3) 0.126 
 Quartile 4 1,649 32 19.4 (12.7–26.1) 8.5 (2.9–25.1) <0.001 
Baseline Sluiter’s Index      
 Quartile 1 1,666 22 13.2 (7.7–18.7) 3.0 (1.3–6.9) 0.012 
 Quartile 2 1,705 12 7.0 (3.0–11.0) 1.5 (0.6–3.8) 0.374 
 Quartile 3 1,675 17 10.1 (5.3–14.9) 2.3 (0.9–5.4) 0.066 
 Quartile 4 1,673 4.8 (1.5–8.1) 1.0  
Person-yearsDiabetes casesIncidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI)OR (95% CI)P value
Baseline HOMA-IR score*      
 Quartile 1 1,695 2.4 (0.1–4.7) 1.0  
 Quartile 2 1,687 12 7.1 (3.1–11.1) 2.9 (0.9–9.3) 0.076 
 Quartile 2 1,688 11 6.5 (2.7–10.3) 2.5 (0.7–8.3) 0.126 
 Quartile 4 1,649 32 19.4 (12.7–26.1) 8.5 (2.9–25.1) <0.001 
Baseline Sluiter’s Index      
 Quartile 1 1,666 22 13.2 (7.7–18.7) 3.0 (1.3–6.9) 0.012 
 Quartile 2 1,705 12 7.0 (3.0–11.0) 1.5 (0.6–3.8) 0.374 
 Quartile 3 1,675 17 10.1 (5.3–14.9) 2.3 (0.9–5.4) 0.066 
 Quartile 4 1,673 4.8 (1.5–8.1) 1.0  

Unadjusted incidence rates are per 1,000 person-years. ORs and P values are derived from a logistic regression model adjusted for age and sex. The slightly lower number of cases with diabetes is due to missing serum for insulin measurements in a few subjects.

*

The overall P value is <0.001;

reference category;

overall P value = 0.008.

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