Ten-year incidence and ORs for type 2 diabetes according to the category of insulin secretion and insulin resistance at baseline
| Baseline insulin sensitivity and secretion . | Person-years . | Diabetes cases . | Incidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI) . | OR (95% CI) . | P value . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal sensitivity, normal secretion | 1,348 | 3 | 2.2 (0–4.7) | 1.0 | |
| Normal sensitivity, low secretion | 2,034 | 13 | 6.4 (2–9–9.9) | 3.0 (0.8–10.7) | 0.093 |
| Normal secretion, low sensitivity | 2,000 | 22 | 11.0 (6.4–15.6) | 5.0 (1.5–17.3) | 0.010 |
| Low sensitivity, low secretion | 1,337 | 21 | 15.7 (9.0–22.3) | 7.1 (2.1–24.4) | 0.002 |
| Baseline insulin sensitivity and secretion . | Person-years . | Diabetes cases . | Incidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI) . | OR (95% CI) . | P value . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal sensitivity, normal secretion | 1,348 | 3 | 2.2 (0–4.7) | 1.0 | |
| Normal sensitivity, low secretion | 2,034 | 13 | 6.4 (2–9–9.9) | 3.0 (0.8–10.7) | 0.093 |
| Normal secretion, low sensitivity | 2,000 | 22 | 11.0 (6.4–15.6) | 5.0 (1.5–17.3) | 0.010 |
| Low sensitivity, low secretion | 1,337 | 21 | 15.7 (9.0–22.3) | 7.1 (2.1–24.4) | 0.002 |
Unadjusted incidence rates are per 1,000 person-years. ORs and P values are derived from a logistic regression model adjusted for age and sex. The overall P value is 0.007. The slightly lower number of cases with diabetes is due to missing serum for insulin measurements in a few subjects. Normal sensitivity, HOMA-IR ≤ median; low sensitivity, HOMA-IR ≥median; low sensitivity, HOMA-IR> median; normal secretion, Sluiter’s Index ≥ median; low secretion, Sluiter’s Index < median.