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TABLE 4

Ten-year incidence and ORs for type 2 diabetes according to the category of insulin secretion and insulin resistance at baseline

Baseline insulin sensitivity and secretionPerson-yearsDiabetes casesIncidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI)OR (95% CI)P value
Normal sensitivity, normal secretion 1,348 2.2 (0–4.7) 1.0  
Normal sensitivity, low secretion 2,034 13 6.4 (2–9–9.9) 3.0 (0.8–10.7) 0.093 
Normal secretion, low sensitivity 2,000 22 11.0 (6.4–15.6) 5.0 (1.5–17.3) 0.010 
Low sensitivity, low secretion 1,337 21 15.7 (9.0–22.3) 7.1 (2.1–24.4) 0.002 
Baseline insulin sensitivity and secretionPerson-yearsDiabetes casesIncidence rate/1,000 person-years (95% CI)OR (95% CI)P value
Normal sensitivity, normal secretion 1,348 2.2 (0–4.7) 1.0  
Normal sensitivity, low secretion 2,034 13 6.4 (2–9–9.9) 3.0 (0.8–10.7) 0.093 
Normal secretion, low sensitivity 2,000 22 11.0 (6.4–15.6) 5.0 (1.5–17.3) 0.010 
Low sensitivity, low secretion 1,337 21 15.7 (9.0–22.3) 7.1 (2.1–24.4) 0.002 

Unadjusted incidence rates are per 1,000 person-years. ORs and P values are derived from a logistic regression model adjusted for age and sex. The overall P value is 0.007. The slightly lower number of cases with diabetes is due to missing serum for insulin measurements in a few subjects. Normal sensitivity, HOMA-IR ≤ median; low sensitivity, HOMA-IR ≥median; low sensitivity, HOMA-IR> median; normal secretion, Sluiter’s Index ≥ median; low secretion, Sluiter’s Index < median.

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