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TABLE 2

Univariate and multivariate analysis

∼1 SD changeUnivariate hazard ratio (95% CI)PMultivariate hazard ratio (95% CI)P
Age 5 years 1.03 (0.88–1.21) 0.68 1.00 (0.84–1.19) 1.00 
BMI 3 kg/m2 1.64 (1.43–1.88) <0.0001 1.28 (1.10–1.49) 0.0012 
Ln(WCC) 0.25 ln(109 cells/l) 1.41 (1.20–1.65) <0.0001 1.14 (0.94–1.38) 0.19 
Systolic blood pressure 20 mmHg 1.22 (1.00–1.48) 0.05 1.02 (0.83–1.25) 0.86 
Ln(triglyceride) 0.5 ln(mmol/l) 2.25 (1.81–2.79) <0.0001 1.42 (1.03–1.96) 0.031 
Total cholesterol 0.5 mmol/l 1.26 (1.10–1.45) 0.0008 1.04 (0.87–1.24) 0.69 
HDL cholesterol 0.25 mmol/l 0.60 (0.49–0.75) <0.0001 0.84 (0.64–1.09) 0.18 
Alcohol 10 units/week 1.02 (0.89–1.16) 0.83 0.95 (0.82–1.10) 0.48 
Smoking Y/N 1.13 (0.80–1.60) 0.5 0.95 (0.66–1.49) 0.97 
Pravastatin therapy  0.70 (0.49–0.99) 0.045 0.72 (0.50–1.03) 0.070 
Ln(CRP) 1 ln(mg/l) 1.55 (1.32–1.82) <0.0001 1.30 (1.07–1.58) 0.0075 
Glucose mmol/l     
    Quintile I: <4.3  Referent level  Referent level  
    Quintile II: >4.3 to 4.5  0.98 (0.35–2.75)  0.90 (0.32–2.54)  
    Quintile III: >4.5 to 4.7  0.42 (0.11–1.85) <0.0001* 0.38 (0.10–1.42) <0.0001* 
    Quintile IV: >4.7 to 5.0  1.53 (0.85–3.58)  1.31 (0.56–3.08)  
    Quintile V: >5.0  11.9 (6.0–23.7)  8.78 (4.37–17.6)  
∼1 SD changeUnivariate hazard ratio (95% CI)PMultivariate hazard ratio (95% CI)P
Age 5 years 1.03 (0.88–1.21) 0.68 1.00 (0.84–1.19) 1.00 
BMI 3 kg/m2 1.64 (1.43–1.88) <0.0001 1.28 (1.10–1.49) 0.0012 
Ln(WCC) 0.25 ln(109 cells/l) 1.41 (1.20–1.65) <0.0001 1.14 (0.94–1.38) 0.19 
Systolic blood pressure 20 mmHg 1.22 (1.00–1.48) 0.05 1.02 (0.83–1.25) 0.86 
Ln(triglyceride) 0.5 ln(mmol/l) 2.25 (1.81–2.79) <0.0001 1.42 (1.03–1.96) 0.031 
Total cholesterol 0.5 mmol/l 1.26 (1.10–1.45) 0.0008 1.04 (0.87–1.24) 0.69 
HDL cholesterol 0.25 mmol/l 0.60 (0.49–0.75) <0.0001 0.84 (0.64–1.09) 0.18 
Alcohol 10 units/week 1.02 (0.89–1.16) 0.83 0.95 (0.82–1.10) 0.48 
Smoking Y/N 1.13 (0.80–1.60) 0.5 0.95 (0.66–1.49) 0.97 
Pravastatin therapy  0.70 (0.49–0.99) 0.045 0.72 (0.50–1.03) 0.070 
Ln(CRP) 1 ln(mg/l) 1.55 (1.32–1.82) <0.0001 1.30 (1.07–1.58) 0.0075 
Glucose mmol/l     
    Quintile I: <4.3  Referent level  Referent level  
    Quintile II: >4.3 to 4.5  0.98 (0.35–2.75)  0.90 (0.32–2.54)  
    Quintile III: >4.5 to 4.7  0.42 (0.11–1.85) <0.0001* 0.38 (0.10–1.42) <0.0001* 
    Quintile IV: >4.7 to 5.0  1.53 (0.85–3.58)  1.31 (0.56–3.08)  
    Quintile V: >5.0  11.9 (6.0–23.7)  8.78 (4.37–17.6)  

Univariate and multivariate hazard ratios with P values and approximate 95% CIs for baseline predictors of development of diabetes. The given hazard ratio for continuous covariates is for an approximate 1 SD change; for example, for log(triglyceride) the hazard ratio is for a 0.5 unit change in the logarithm of triglyceride (with triglyceride measured in millimoles per liter). For categorical variates, the hazard ratio is with or without the stated attribute, e.g., smoker or nonsmoker. Ln, natural logarithm.

*

P for the χ2 test on four degrees of freedom for the equality of the five quintiles.

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