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Table 3

AUROC for diabetic retinopathy of the predictive models that include traditional and novel risk factors

AUROC for diabetic retinopathy
AUROCChange (%) in AUROC*
Model 1: age/sex adjusted 0.541 — 
Model 2   
    Duration of diabetes 0.717 32.5 
    Diabetes medications 0.668 23.5 
    A1C 0.640 18.3 
    SBP 0.574 6.1 
    Waist-to-hip ratio 0.569 5.2 
    Traditional/established risk factors 0.753 39.2 
Model 2   
    UAC ratio 0.643 18.9 
    PAP 0.596 10.2 
    Fibrinogen 0.574 6.1 
    Homocysteine 0.543 0.4 
    Serum creatinine 0.543 0.4 
    Novel risk factors 0.667 23.3 
    Traditional and novel risk factors§ 0.765 41.4 
AUROC for diabetic retinopathy
AUROCChange (%) in AUROC*
Model 1: age/sex adjusted 0.541 — 
Model 2   
    Duration of diabetes 0.717 32.5 
    Diabetes medications 0.668 23.5 
    A1C 0.640 18.3 
    SBP 0.574 6.1 
    Waist-to-hip ratio 0.569 5.2 
    Traditional/established risk factors 0.753 39.2 
Model 2   
    UAC ratio 0.643 18.9 
    PAP 0.596 10.2 
    Fibrinogen 0.574 6.1 
    Homocysteine 0.543 0.4 
    Serum creatinine 0.543 0.4 
    Novel risk factors 0.667 23.3 
    Traditional and novel risk factors§ 0.765 41.4 

Data were obtained during the first examination (from July 2000 to August 2002) except for retinopathy, which was collected during the second examination (from August 2002 to January 2004).

*Percent increase of AUROC = AUROC of model 2 − AUROC model 1 × 100 AUROC model 1.

†Each variable was added separately to age and sex. The AUROC of each row is that of the variable, age, and sex in the model only.

‡The combined change of the AUROC for the traditional/established risk factors (i.e., duration of diabetes, use of diabetes medications, A1C, SBP, and waist-to-hip ratio) or the novel risk factors (i.e., UAC ratio, PAP, fibrinogen, homocysteine, and serum creatinine).

§The combined change of the AUROC for the traditional/established and novel risk factors.

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